2010 Elections

Earlier this evening, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty was asked for his opinion of Syria on the Hugh Hewitt radio show. “Bashar al-Assad is a dictator,” said Pawlenty, a prospective Republican presidential candidate for the 2012 election, referencing the Syrian strongman who is brutally murdering his own people. “His father killed thousands – tens of thousands of people. He is also a killer.”

Elections have consequences, and in Alabama the consequences have come quickly and decisively.

On Election Night a few weeks back, several races remained outstanding.  In the weeks that have followed, all but one of the contests has been settled, with the final one (NY-1) now being tended to by a judge.  Let's run down the results.

-CA-11.  Republican efforts to take back Richard Pombo's old seat have proven unsuccessful.  Democrat Jerry McNerney ultimately prevailed, despite the fact that late on election night Republican David Harmer had the lead.

The Syracuse Post-Standard reports that Republican Ann Marie Buerkle's lead has grown to 567 votes over Democratic congressman Dan Maffei, and it's hard to see how Maffei could pull this off:

There is an under-noticed bright spot for the Republican Party after the recent midterm election: Gains with Hispanic voters and Hispanic politicians.

Ben Smith has a good piece on John Thune’s vulnerabilities as a 2012 presidential candidate. Smith’s post raises the central question: Is Thune too “establishment” for the current political environment?

Never mind the talk of tsunamis and tidal waves, last Tuesday’s results revealed some storm clouds ahead for both parties. (Okay, I promise to stop sounding like the political Weather Channel.)

Let’s start with the Democrats. Beyond the obvious, such as losing independents by 16 points and moving backward with nearly every major demographic group compared to the last two elections, Democrats should be wary of five other pitfalls.

Today's post is the first entry in a four-part series analyzing the 2010 midterm election. My plan is to break it down by region, and I begin today with the South – or more specifically, the 11 states that made up the old Confederacy.

To start, let’s sketch out a broad overview of the Southern states, based on the available exit polling data. Exit polls were conducted in 5 of the 11 states we are evaluating, and here are some notable results.

The Washington Post reports that Republican House candidate Keith Fimian has conceded to Democratic incumbent Gerry Connolly in Virginia's Eleventh Congressional District. Politico lists eight other House races that as of last night were still unresolved.

Bad enough for the Democrats that they just lost their House majority and saw their Senate advantage tumble from 60 seats two years ago to 53 (it could have been worse), but now they must brace for the effects of the 2010 Census. As the Washington Post's Charles Lane reminds us,

In the midst of a resounding national rebuke at all levels of government, the Democrats have been taking some solace in having held the Senate. But to put the Republicans' Senate gains this week into perspective, Republicans won an even higher percentage of Senate races than House races (they won 65 percent of the 37 Senate races, versus approximately 56 percent of the 435 House races).