2012 election

In 2008, Barack Obama carried nine states that George W. Bush won in 2004. According to the latest polls and the assessments of seasoned observers, it’s going to be tough for Obama to win them again. 

Circumstance #1: Obama is a weak candidate for reelection. 

Michael Barone picks up on a pretty startling political trend — the youth vote is drifting away from Obama:

President Obama portrays himself as the nonpartisan adult in the room in the struggle over raising the debt limit. In his nationally televised speech Monday, he placed himself above Washington’s “three-ring circus,” as someone who has “put politics aside” and is desperate for a bipartisan “compromise” between Democrats and Republicans.

Since Michael Barone literally wrote the book on American politics, he's worth paying attention to when it comes to discussing election trends. In his latest post over at The American, Barone makes a key insight -- for the first time in two decades House of Representatives might be a good lens for looking at the popular vote:

I don't know if I'd read too much into this, but what the hey. Here's a an email that recently landed in THE WEEKLY STANDARD inbox:

Via Hot Air: Public Policy Polling reports that Michele Bachmann is far more popular in the key state of New Hampshire than she was just three months ago:

When PPP polled New Hampshire in April Michele Bachmann was stuck at 4%.

The Palin question for 2012 is still far from resolved, and Scott Conroy of RealClearPolitics files this curious report from Iowa:

Following on Matt Continetti’s cover story this week, “Queen of the Tea Party,” a host of writers seem to have awakened to the charms, and the potential, of Michele Bachmann.

"S&P to deeply cut U.S. ratings if debt payment missed"

Obama Fundraising fail?

"Jewish Dems losing faith in Obama"

Karl Rove: "Why Obama Is Likely to Lose in 2012"

"Obama, as suspected, disregarded the Afghan troop drawdown recommendation of Gen. Petraeus"

Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said this morning that Congress will not raise taxes this year to reduce the budget deficit, favoring instead a pro-growth agreement as a solution to debt ceiling debate.

“I think I can safely say this Congress is not going to raise taxes,” McConnell said. “So why are we still talking about this?” McConnell argued that if Congress wanted to raise taxes, the simplest way would be to increase them on those individuals making over a million dollars a year.