Over the past few months, the boss has conducted an unscientific straw poll to ask newsletter subscribers (subscribe for free!) and TWS blog readers their top three choices for the 2016 GOP nominee. This morning, he sent out the results, and Scott Walker has maintained his lead.
Here's an excerpt from the newsletter:
Last but not least: the results of our straw poll.First, a caveat: The last newsletter appeared just before Donald Trump got in the race, so he wasn't on the list of candidates. He nonetheless got a fair number of write-in votes (he ended up with 2% of the first place ballots, and was on 5% of all ballots in first, second or third). I'm sure he would have done far better if he'd been listed. As I suggest in this week's editorial, while I don't think he should be the nominee or even come close to being the nominee, I do suspect the political class is under-estimating the potency of his message, and I suspect the other candidates could learn something from what he's saying.
In any case, in our latest straw poll, Scott Walker continues to hold the first place position he's had in all four of our surveys. Marco Rubio is now a clear second, and is one of only two candidates to have moved up consistently from poll to poll. The other is Carly Fiorina, who is now sixth in first place votes, but third (!) when you total first, second and third place showings. All the other candidates have more or less bounced around inconclusively, as you can see below. So the bottom line is: Walker remains strong, Rubio continues to move up, and Fiorina is surging.
Here are the results of the four straw polls we've done. The first number is the percentage of first place ballots the candidate received, the second is the number of ballots on which the candidate is mentioned for either first, second or third place.
(Rick Santorum, Chris Christie, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki were all no better than 1 percent in first place ballots or 4 percent in the three top places combined, so I've left them --along with Trump-- off of the chart.)
On the question of the debates, I asked whether you'd prefer that the first debate be limited to the top ten candidates, determined by an average of national polls at the time, or whether all fifteen or so candidates who hold or have held major elective office, who have some support in national polls, should be randomly divided into two groups for two debates, held back to back the same evening or on adjacent evenings. About 35% of you preferred the first cut-off-at-ten-candidates option, and 65% preferred the more inclusive option of two debates.
I'm with the 65% of you on this. But whatever format is used, here's a prediction about the debate or debates: The elected officials and most likely nominees--Bush, Walker, Rubio, et al, will be cautious, and, I suspect, un-memorable. Trump, and perhaps Carson or Fiorina, will steal the show, since they're more likely to be uninhibited and interesting. The GOP establishment insisted on shrinking the number of debates and the number of participants. The unanticipated consequence will be to give individuals whom the establishment doesn't consider plausible nominees more of a chance to make a big impact. So the debates won't have the effect of winnowing the field down to plausible nominees--they'll shake things up more.Which is fine with me. A little creative chaos never hurt anyone.
A largely unnoticed story about Carly Fiorina is that she is the daughter of a man who was one of the finest lawyers of his generation. His influence on her, she says, is “huge.” Asked in an interview whether he would be surprised by her bid for the Oval Office, Fiorina said he “probably would be,” adding, “I hope he would be proud. I think he would be proud.”
Carly Fiorina has a message for Democrats who oppose a ban on late-term abortions: You don't represent most women. The Republican presidential candidate and former Hewlett-Packard CEO said she backs a bill, passed by the House of Representatives and just introduced in the Senate, that limits abortions after 20 weeks of gestation except in cases of rape, incest, and where the life of the mother is at stake.
On Wednesday, Democrat Hillary Clinton posted her first photo to Instagram, the photo-based social network, with a joke referencing her memoir Hard Choices. Here's the photo, which shows several red, white, and blue pantsuits hanging on a rack:
Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina says the United States is "not making progress" in its fight against ISIS. In a recent interview with THE WEEKLY STANDARD, Fiorina said President Obama "understates the significance of the situation" with the terrorist group that has taken over large swaths of land in Syria and Iraq.
"It's more than a tactical setback," she said of Ramadi, a critical town in Iraq's Anbar province that fell to ISIS forces last week. "It demonstrates that we're not making enough progress in degrading and defeating ISIS."
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Carly Fiorina will both be campaigning in Columbia, South Carolina, on Wednesday, and the Fiorina campaign is making sure reporters know its candidate will be answering questions. Fiorina will be available to speak to the press, says deputy campaign manager Sarah Isgur Flores, shortly before speaking with Republican state legislators at the state capitol. The former Hewlett-Packard CEO will also travel to Spartanburg later in the day for another event.
In her first week as a candidate for president, Carly Fiorina’s TV schedule alone has been dizzyingly prolific. Since announcing her run on May 4th, Fiorina has done the following: two interviews on ABC’s Good Morning America; two Fox News interviews, one in the morning and another in primetime; a primetime CNN appearance; NBC’s the Today Show, the Late Show, and Meet the Press; a hit on all three cable business networks, CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg; and a live interview on Yahoo with Katie Couric.
Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO and new Republican presidential candidate, appeared on NBC's Late Night with Seth Meyers Tuesday to talk about her candidacy. Host Seth Meyers brought up the fact that Fiorina had failed to purchase the internet domain carlyfiorina.org before launching her campaign this week. Someone else purchased the domain instead, publishing on the site a short message about Fiorina's layoffs at HP and representing all 30,000 of them with a frowning face emoticon.