Health Care Reform

Let's set the table. You can read the reconciliation text here. The preliminary CBO analysis is here.

Dr. Coburn speaks. But will Democrats listen?

In order to obtain a friendly CBO score, the Democrats lowered the threshold at which health insurance plans will be subject to the excise tax. That threshold is now pegged at inflation, which means more and more plans will be subject to bracket creep over time.

Yet labor coalition Change to Win says it supports the revised Senate bill. And AFL-CIO boss Richard Trumka is in talks with his executive committee over the changes to the tax. The AFL-CIO is expected to support the bill, as well, despite the changes. Why?

Yesterday Trumka was summoned to an unscheduled meeting at the White House. One wonders what he was told. Could it have been that the regressive changes to the taxes and subsidies shouldn't sway his support for the bill, since the Democrats can always cancel them once they kick down the door?

House majority leader Steny Hoyer has informed his colleagues of the CBO health bill score. Politico reports: 

The bill would cost $940 billion, and reduce the deficit by $130 billion over the first 10 years and $1.2 trillion in the second 10 years. The deficit numbers Democrats have been most worried about, and will be key to convincing moderates to coming on board with the bill.

Keep in mind that the second decade estimate is incredibly speculative. Overall, though, this score may move some undecided congressmen into the Yes column. Whether those congressmen will be members who voted No last year is another question entirely, however. Perhaps they will have seen this video:

More CBO details, and the final reconciliation language, are expected later today. A Sunday morning vote is now likely. Gentlemen: Start your engines! The countdown has begun.

More bad news for Democrats in the latest Pew survey. Forty-eight percent oppose the health bill, 38 percent approve. Obama's job approval is down to 46 percent, with 43 percent disapproval. A majority says health care costs will increase despite passage of health care reform. Ask voters what they think of Congress, and the four words you are most likely to hear are “dysfunctional,” “corrupt,” “self-serving,” and “inept.” "Tickle fight" didn't make the cut.

On a brighter note, the public continues to admire and like Obama personally, even if they are deeply divided when evaluating his job performance. And voters also say the war in Afghanistan is improving. Prosecution of the war there continues to be one of the president's strongest issues.

Even so, the more time the Democrats spend on health care, the worse their political situation becomes. A new PPP poll gives the GOP a three-point lead in the generic ballot. Republicans are intensely enthusiastic about the midterm election while Democrats are not. Obama's Gallup numbers are no good. And yet the Democrats press on and on and on.

Fox News Channel's Bret Baier interviewed President Obama today. It wasn't what you'd call a friendly encounter. Baier, concerned that the president was filibustering, repeatedly interrupted the chief executive. Obama quickly grew frustrated. Before long, the look on his face suggested he was wondering why he agreed to the interview in the first place.

I have no idea what Firedoglake means, but I do know it's an influential left-wing website that hosts one of the better health care reform whip counts. As Byron York reports:

Republicans feel it is accurate, particularly in this sense: They believe that no Democratic lawmaker who is definitely planning to vote yes on the bill would want the activists on the left, in this case exemplified by Firedoglake, to believe he or she is still undecided. Why take a beating for nothing?

The current count at FDL is 205 Yes, 209 No, including leaners. That jibes with other whip counts showing health care reform's future up for grabs.

A major factor in the upcoming vote is the CBO score of the reconciliation bill. The number isn't out yet, not because math is hard but because Democrats are manipulating the numbers to get a good result. Yet word is spreading that health care reform's price-tag is still tremendously expensive. As the saying goes: Know hope.

According to Thomas Peters, Nancy Pelosi's emergency meeting this morning with the female Democratic House members was called after she met with Bart Stupak yesterday, and Stupak "didn't cave to her demands." There's been chatter on Capitol Hill today that Pelosi excluded pro-life women from a meeting this morning, and a staffer for pro-life Democrat Marcy Kaptur tells THE WEEKLY STANDARD's Daniel Halper that Kaptur did not attend this morning's meeting, though the staffer didn't specify why Kaptur didn't attend.

Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California, the GOP deputy whip, just held a conference call with bloggers. Here's what he said. The Republicans estimate that Pelosi has 205 Yes votes, while there are 205 No votes. That leaves about 21 votes up for grabs. Pelosi can lose 37 Democrats and still pass Obamacare into law. Based on rules and precedent and what's happening on the floor, the Republicans estimate that the earliest a health care vote could be held would be late Saturday or early Sunday.

McCarthy also said the Democrats have been pushed backward over the last 24 hours. Forget Kucinich. The reaction to the Slaughter Solution has been horrible for Pelosi and her team. Bart Stupak is holding his ground, even if some of his bloc may peel off in the end. And there's still no final reconciliation language and thus no CBO score for the bill. The Democrats are playing with the numbers in order to earn a deficit-neutral score. Meanwhile, the Capitol Hill switch board has been flooded with calls for and against the legislation.

Rep. Parker Griffith of Alabama, who switched to the GOP in December, shed some light on how the Democratic whip operation works. Griffith said the whip team, when it calls or visits an undecided congressman, knows everything about him. They know the demographics of his district, his popularity, his most recent margin of victory, how safe his seat is, how popular the president and Pelosi are in his state, whether his state has a Medicaid shortfall, and whether he's been wanting money for a new road or bike path or medical school in his district. They come ready to deal. The one thing the whip team can't guarantee? A congressman's reelection.

As expected, Dennis "Paragon of Principle" Kucinich became the first No vote to say he'll vote Yes on the Senate health care bill. Kucinich previously called the legislation an "insurance industry giveaway." But then it's never too late to change your mind.

Meanwhile, for the first time in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, Obama's disapproval is higher than his approval. And I'm sure health care reform has absolutely nothing to do with it.

The House Democratic leadership's flirtation with the Slaughter Rule, under which the House would "deem" the Senate bill passed while voting on the reconciliation package, has Republicans on the attack. Roll Call says Pelosi, Hoyer, and Clyburn are "tied in knots" as they search for vote number 216.

CNN says health care reform's opponents are 11 votes short of killing the bill. The number of confirmed "No" votes, in other words, is at 205.

Rep. Michael Burgess couldn't believe his ears. He'd just been read President Obama's words in Strongville, Ohio, yesterday. At a campaign-style rally, the president had said that "We’ve ended up with a proposal that incorporates the best ideas from Democrats and Republicans."