Independents

On Wednesday I argued that only a tiny swath of the actual electorate – maybe 10 percent – will be up for grabs in November. Today, I want to answer the obvious follow-up question: what are these voters thinking?

An emerging genre in popular commentary on politics is the use of statistical models to predict election results. Once the domain of academics writing for the scholarly journal P.S., it has become very widespread in recent years.

Late last month, Gallup published a summary of President Obama’s job approval ratings for 2011. The pollster’s findings were stunning: Eighty percent of Democrats approved of the president’s performance through 2011, as did just 12 percent of Repub-licans. The difference between these two numbers—Gallup calls it the “party gap”—was a whopping 68 points. 

The latest Rasmussen poll of likely voters offers a bit of good news and bit of bad news for Mitt Romney.  The poll shows that President Obama and Romney are now tied, at 42 percent support apiece. But among independents, the group that’s most likely to swing the next election, Obama now enjoys a 6-point edge (39 to 33 percent). Romney achieved a tie in the overall tally by faring better among Democrats (12 percent of whom favor Romney) than Obama did among Republicans (8 percent of whom favor Obama).

Many commentators who are friendly to the conservative cause have rightly argued (for example, see here and

If the House were composed solely of independents, it would pass the same conservative legislation as Republicans on Obamacare, the individual mandate, purchasing health insurance across state lines, spending, offshore oil drilling, and Social Security reform.

If there's any group you want on your side when approaching an election, it's enthusiastic independent voters.

Recently Michael Barone pointed out that President Obama has a concentration problem:

The proportion of Republicans, Democrats, and independents that turnout to vote shape the outcome of every election.  Even small shifts in these percentages can dramatically alter political outcomes. And this November’s midterm is no exception.

A new Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix poll (conducted June 5-8, 2010), finds that Republicans hold a substantial edge on a number of policy issues with two key voter groups – seniors (age 65+) and independents – five months before this year’s midterm elections.

The economy is the No. 1 concern for a majority of voters heading into 2010's midterm elections, but the deficit comes in close behind, particularly with all-important independent voters, according to a new Gallup poll.

The economy tops a list of concerns, unsurprisingly, for 57 percent of voters, with health care (49%) and unemployment (46%) rounding out the top three. But when you examine the numbers among just independent voters, the federal budget deficit becomes the second-most important issue at 52 percent.

The votes of House Democrats on Sunday will largely determine the votes of independents in November.  Individual members of Congress who vote “no” on the proposed health care overhaul will strike an immediate chord of respect with their constituents, establish an instant reputation for fiscal prudence and independent thinking, and gain the appreciation of voters for listening to them.  Those who vote “yes” will invite the disdain of voters across the entire political spectrum, save the far left.