A new poll of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa finds Donald Trump and Ben Carson tied for the lead at 23 percent support. The Monmouth University poll is the first since July to show Trump not in the sole lead position in Iowa.
Behind Trump and Carson in the poll is Carly Fiorina at 10 percent support. All three top candidates are not officeholders and only one, Fiorina, has ever run for public office before.
The remaining Republican candidates, all current or former elected officials, poll in the single digits, with Ted Cruz at nine percent, Scott Walker at seven percent, Jeb Bush at five percent, John Kasich and Marco Rubio at four percent each,Rand Paul at three percent, and Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum each at two percent.
Carson appears to be doing better than Trump among evangelical voters, winning 29 percent of them compared to Trump's 23 percent, while Trump does better with non-evangelicals, 24 percent to Carson's 18 percent. While both candidates are doing about equally well with "very conservative" and "somewhat conservative" voters, "moderate to liberal" voters prefer Trump by a significant amount, 26 percent to Carson's 18 percent and Fiorina's 13 percent. Women also prefer Carson to Trump, and for men it's the other way around.
Wisconsin governor Scott Walker is nothing if not a campaign veteran. He’s run and won three statewide races since 2010, including the highly contentious recall election in 2012. In fact, since an unsuccessful bid for the state assembly in 1990 when he was just 22, Walker hasn’t lost an election. That’s a great record to have going into a campaign for president, but just a month into his official candidacy, Walker is suffering from a perception that he’s already losing.
A majority of Iowa Democrats, 52 percent, still support Clinton, while Sanders has 25 percent. That represents what PPP calls a "decent amount of tightening" in the Democratic race since April, with Clinton's support dropping from 62 percent and Sanders's up from 14 percent.
Rick Santorum is keeping expectations low for his second presidential campaign. Asked if he would need to win the Iowa caucuses to stay in the race, the former senator said it “depends.”
“If I finish third and half a percent behind first, I think I feel pretty good. If I finish third and I’m ten points out, well, that’s a different story,” he told a small group of reporters in a Washington restaurant Monday afternoon.
A new Quinnipiac poll of likely Iowa Republican presidential caucusgoers finds Wisconsin's Scott Walker in front of the GOP pack with 21 percent support and a 9-point advantage over his closest primary opponents.
A new poll of likely Iowa Republican presidential caucus goers finds a wide-open field with three candidates vying for the top spot and a plurality undecided. Scott Walker, the governor of neighboring Wisconsin, leads the latest poll from Loras College, earning 12.6 percent support. Florida senator Marco Rubio, who declared his candidacy earlier this month, is close behind with 10 percent, while former Florida governor Jeb Bush has 9.6 percent.
Both Walker and Rubio have doubled their support from the January Loras poll, according to a press release from the college.
The super PAC supporting former Texas governor Rick Perry has a new web ad focusing on the Republican's farming roots and showcasing his recent trips to Iowa. "My background is off of a dry-land cotton farm 200 miles west of Fort Worth, Texas," says Perry in the video. "I understand blue-collar, hard-working people." The agriculture-heavy state is the site of the first presidential primary election event of the cycle, the Iowa caucuses.
Just before the start of the Labor Day holiday weekend, the reelection campaign for Mitch McConnell of Kentucky announced its campaign manager, Jesse Benton, was resigning. Benton was leaving the campaign, Politico reports, "citing potential distractions over renewed attention to a scandal from the Iowa 2012 caucuses."
A gathering of pro-Hillary Clinton activists in Iowa this weekend revealed how supporters of the former first lady are hoping to learn from the mistakes of Clinton's failed attempt to win the Iowa caucuses in 2008. America Rising, a conservative opposition research firm, had its cameras rolling at the meeting, organized by Ready for Hillary, a super PAC that supports Clinton.
The chairman of Ron Paul’s 2012 presidential campaign is refusing to answer questions about allegations the campaign paid for endorsements before the Iowa caucuses last year. Jesse Benton, a longtime Paul aide who is now campaign manager for Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, has not replied to requests for comment after an audio recording surfaced whereby an Iowa state senator, Kent Sorenson, admitted he had received a $30,000 check from high-level Paul campaign official, accepting the money in exchange for switching his support from Michele Bachmann to Ron Paul.
Manchester, N.H. As caucusgoers gathered Tuesday night in Iowa, Mitt Romney's presidential campaign here tries to maintain its focus on the first in the nation New Hampshire primary. In the campaign office on Elm Street, a cadre of young, college-aged volunteers works the phones and snacks on pizza. Except for the communal television which is tuned to Fox News to check in on Iowa, and which only attracts the scattered attention of a few staffers, work goes on as usual.
On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, Newt Gingrich lowered the boom on Mitt Romney in an interview with CNN's Piers Morgan. Gingrich criticized his GOP rival as a "Massachusetts moderate" while touting himself as a "Southern conservative." Asked if he ought to be responding more aggressively to attacks from Romney and the other Republican candidates, Gingrich said he would need to fight back, as some aides have reportedly been urging him to do.
CNN's Dana Bash touted her interview with Texas congressman Ron Paul and his son, Kentucky senator Rand Paul, by noting on Twitter that the elder Paul "ruled out running outside" the Republican party if he fails to win the GOP nomination for president. But that's not exactly what Ron Paul said. Here's the quotation (emphasis mine):
It’s likely that no candidate will win so much as 30 percent of the votes cast in Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses. Yet you can bet that the press corps will crown as the big winner the candidate who gets perhaps one-quarter of the votes of caucus-goers in a state that’s half the size of the average state. Meanwhile, those who get one-sixth, or one-seventh, or one-eighth, of that same vote, will be labeled as losers who might want to think about dropping out of the national race. This, of course, is foolishness.