A new SurveyUSA poll shows Democrat Jim Costa trailing Republican Andy Vidak by 10 points, 42% to 52%. Obama won the Fresno-based district with 60% of the vote in 2008, and Cook Political Report has the race rated "Leans Democrat."
An interesting fact from Cook (subscription required): "This district is now 67 percent Hispanic, but it also has a serious cultural conservative streak. Proposition 8, the same-sex marriage ban passed statewide [in 2008], garnered 72 percent of the vote here." The provision to fund abortion coverage in Obamacare is probably hurting Costa in this district--SurveyUSA reports that 56% of likely voters in the district are "pro-life" and 40% "pro-choice" (a third-party group recently hit Barbara Boxer in an ad for not representing "our values" on issues like abortion and marriage).
Polls like this one explain why Obama is explicitly urging Latinos to "punish" their "enemies" on Election Day. The bad news for Obama and Democrats like Jim Costa is that many Latinos oppose liberal policies.
Hat tip: Jim Geraghty.