With 33 percent of precincts reporting, Joe Miller, the Sarah Palin-backed veteran and former judge, is leading incumbent Alaska senator Lisa Murkowski in the Republican Senate primary 51.2 percent to 48.8 percent--or 21,364 votes to 20,362 votes. As John Fund reported Tuesday, Miller was "closing the gap," but still down by double digits against Murkowski in the most recent polling. This would be a very big upset if Miller wins.
Update: With 50 percent of precincts reporting, Miller is holding his narrow lead over Murkowski, 51.8 percent to 48.2 percent.
Update II: The results remain practically unchanged, with 84.2 percent of precincts reporting. Miller still leads Murkowski, 51.45 percent to 48.55 percent.
Update III (8:57 a.m.): With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Miller leads Murkowski 51.1 percent to 48.9 percent--or 45,909 to 43,949 votes. But the election isn't over quite yet. The Hotline's Reid Wilson writes that there are 8,000 absentee ballots to be counted beginning next Tuesday. But, assuming Miller maintins his 1,960 vote lead as the final two percent of precincts are counted, Murkowski would need 5,000 of the 8,000 absentee votes break in her favor to overtake Miller. (Update III was updated at 9:38 a.m. to correct vote totals.)