Could it really be that close?8:00 PM, Jan 19, 2010 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
Via Ace, oh my:
The Martha Coakley campaign just sent out a media advisory, announcing a press conference at 5:30 p.m. ET, alleging irregularities in the special Senate election.
The press conference will involve reports of voters who received ballots that were already marked for Republican candidate Scott Brown.
The gender gap shrinks.5:49 PM, Jan 19, 2010 • By EMILY SCHULTHEIS
Dana Goldstein at the Daily Beast is bummed, along with her fellow feminists from Massachusetts who put their weight behind Martha Coakley early on in the primary, only to be disappointed during the general election as Scott Brown moved ahead in the polls with the support of the Tea Party movement and other voters fed up with the Obamacare mess. While they still support her effort and are making calls on her behalf, feminist groups in Massachusetts are scratching their heads toda
Blue on blue.5:45 PM, Jan 19, 2010 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
As Mary Katharine notes below, Ben Smith reports that a Coakley adviser is sending around a memo blaming national Democrats for Coakley's current predicament, and Washington Democrats are firing back.
Taxes, terrorism, and health care were much more important than Scott Brown's truck.3:55 PM, Jan 19, 2010 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
The Massachusetts election is by no means a done deal, but Democrats are furiously spinning the race under the assumption that Brown will win. There are a number of misconceptions being spread by those trying to pin blame mostly or solely on Coakley, but one of the more puzzling Democratic talking points is that Coakley "let the race become a personality contest." That line was uttered by Barney Frank last week and is repeated by Tom Schaller at FiveThirtyEight.com today:
Surprisingly, women and youth support Brown over Coakley.3:24 PM, Jan 19, 2010 • By RACHEL HOFF
A Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll released yesterday showed remarkably high support for Scott Brown, especially among two groups that many would assume to be sure bets for Martha Coakley: women and youth.
Under the bus.12:39 PM, Jan 19, 2010 • By EMILY SCHULTHEIS
Byron York of the Washington Examiner reports that Coakley's fellow Democrats are turning against her. They're blaming Coakley not only for her “inept campaign,” but also for her aloof personality and poor relationship with the Kennedys and Obama:
What Scott Brown needs to do to beat Martha Coakley.12:22 PM, Jan 19, 2010 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
Assuming that the Massachusetts election results page (update: see results here) doesn't crash due to a tremendous amount of traffic, what should one be looking for after the polls close at 8:00 p.m. and numbers begin pouring in? The Cook Political Report's election whiz David Wasserman writes in an email to THE WEEKLY STANDARD:
1) Western Mass - Coakley needs a huge margin out of what I call the "Rachel Maddow Belt" - the Berkshires, where she has roots, and the Pioneer Valley. She probably needs a 5,000 vote lead out of Amherst and high turnout in places like Springfield, Pittsfield, and Northampton.
Spin-Mania!9:43 AM, Jan 19, 2010 • By MARY KATHARINE HAM
Stu Rothenberg: "If you are looking for an analogy for a Republican victory in Massachusetts, the best one for Democrats may well be the stock market crash of 1929. Come Tuesday night, you could have Democrats jumping out windows and off roofs ..."
Paging Lord Acton.8:47 AM, Jan 19, 2010 • By MATTHEW CONTINETTI
Happy Massachusetts special election day. As Bay State voters head to the polls, political scientist Charles Franklin concludes: "Republican Scott Brown holds a lead in all 18 alternative models of the Massachusetts Senate race polls, now including all polls released through 6:00 p.m. Monday. Our standard trend estimate puts the race at a 6.2 point Brown lead over Democrat Martha Coakley."
"I think that this candidate is in freefall. Clearly this race is imploding for her."4:25 PM, Jan 18, 2010 • By DANIEL HALPER
A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted exclusively for POLITICO shows Republican Scott Brown surging to a nine-point advantage over Martha Coakley a day before Massachusetts voters trek to the ballot box to choose a new senator.
Rape Mailer backlash?3:10 PM, Jan 18, 2010 • By MARY KATHARINE HAM
Key findings: "Brown leads Coakley 97% to 1% among registered Republicans and he leads 64% to 32% among unenrolled voters. Coakley leads Brown 73% to 23% among registered Democrats."
Coakley has lost ground among unenrolled voters over the last ARG poll, conducted days earlier.
1:42 PM, Jan 18, 2010 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
The latest Research 2000 poll, conducted January 15 to 17 for Daily Kos, shows Brown and Coakley tied at 48%. In sharp contrast to last night's PPP poll, the Kos poll shows Coakley with a higher favorable/unfavorable rating than Brown:
The PPP poll showed Coakley with a -7 favorable rating (44/51), while Brown had a +19 favorable rating (56/37).