Obama Budget

Mark Halperin says David Brooks's column today "cracks the code of the Obama White House."

What does the decrypt reveal? Here's what:

The atmosphere in the White House appears surprisingly tranquil. Emanuel is serving as a lighting rod for the president but remains crisply confident in his role as chief of staff. It’s true that several top administration officials did not want to attempt comprehensive health care reform this year. But they are not opening recrimination campaigns. It’s no secret that many think the president needs to be more assertive with Congress, yet administration officials still talk about Obama in awestruck tones, even in private.

Some would say the administration is underreacting to the incredible shift in the public mood. Some would say they need more voices from the great unwashed. But no one could accuse them of panicking, or of scrambling about incoherently. In their first winter of discontent, they are offering continuity and comity. Whatever their relations with the country might be, inside they seem unruffled. The bonds of association, from the top down, seem healthy — especially for a bunch of Democrats.

Hence Obama's decision to re-litigate health care reform even though public opposition brought his plan to a standstill in Congress; even though he said in the State of the Union that his "number one focus" was jobs; even though his approval ratings began falling precipitously at the moment when health care took center stage in the national debate. His post-State of the Union bounce is gone: Marist pegs Obama's job approval at 47 percent. Rasmussen also has it at 47 percent.

The unemployment rate has fallen from 10 percent to 9.7 percent. But, like the fourth quarter growth number of 5.7 percent, it is hard to get excited about this number. Obviously it's good to have rising growth and falling unemployment. Yet the positive macro-economic numbers do not mesh with the everyday realities of many workers (and voters), who see a stagnant economy and a comatose job market. For instance, the percentage of people who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more rose to 41.2 percent in January. A record high.

The assault on Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin's Roadmap for America's Future is not only coordinated. It's misleading and irresponsible. Politico observes that "in just a week, Ryan had gone from being seen as the smart conservative whom Obama might take seriously to being seen as the symbol of how Democrats believe Republicans would dismantle the social safety net if the GOP took control of Congress." Obama, budget chief Peter Orszag and congressional Democrats have all said that Ryan's plan would dismantle the welfare state and leave seniors and the poor on their own. Obama launched the criticism at the House GOP retreat in Baltimore last week. On February 4, congressional Democrats held a conference call in which leadership told members how to criticize Ryan's plan. Liberal media outlets are following the Democrats' preferred story-line.

Obama's State of the Union Address and his outreach to Republicans has led to a slight bump in his job approval rating. Obama is at 49 percent in the latest Rasmussen Reports daily survey. In Gallup Daily Tracking, Obama is now once again above 50 percent.

This is one reason Republicans should heed Stuart Rothenberg's warning not to become overconfident (link is subscribers only). Obviously, no one has any idea how long the bump will last. Still, when you study midterm elections, the rule tends to be that approval rating reigns supreme. In 1982, 1994, and 2006, the president's approval rating was in the low forties. The 1982 election saw major Democratic gains; 1994 and 2006 saw the out-party win Congress. For the 2010 Republicans to do the same -- something that prevailing wisdom now considers a possibility -- Obama's job approval would have to fall farther than it already has.

Or maybe not. In Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, Obama's approval rating was just slightly under 50 percent or higher even as his favored candidates lost high profile elections. Obama may be the exception that proves the rule of presidential job approval and midterms. He may be the exception because he receives an enormous amount of goodwill from the American public. Even as the electorate votes against his agenda and his party, it tends to give him the benefit of the doubt.

AP reporter Erica Werner on Obamacare:

The legislation remains in limbo. Reps. Dennis Cardoza and Jim Costa, moderates from California who voted for the House bill, burst out laughing when asked about the issue's fate. 

These are members of Pelosi's state delegation. She simply does not have the 218 votes necessary to pass the bill.

Deputy Press Secretary Bill Burton took his first turn behind the podium today, and was asked about the president's health-care remarks at yesterday's town hall during which he said he hoped to get health care done this year.

Mark Knoller of CBS News asked whether that was a new deadline, and if the president had specific dates and plans. Bill Burton:

Even his adversaries agree that Rep. Paul Ryan's Roadmap for America's Future is a big idea: The plan reforms Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and the income tax. It effectively deals with the long-term fiscal crisis. The Obama budget, by contrast, projects record deficits and rising public debt long into the future.

Obama says the Republicans are always on the sidelines, but on a major issue -- preventing the fiscal reckoning that could lead to high interest rates, inflation, low growth, economy-strangling austerity plans, or all of the above -- Obama and the Democrats have little to say. To date, the president's attempt to address the entitlement problem has been restricted to his health care bill, which relied on rosy assumptions and left the "tough choices" to future Congresses and Independent Medicare Advisory Boards. And the health reform is unlikely to pass in any case. Entitlement commissions? Nonstarters. Spending freezes? They're trivial. We're back at square one.

In the president's proposed budget, the Obama administration zeroed out funding for NASA’s Constellation launch vehicle program. I think this decision is both irresponsible and short-sighted. “We certainly don't need to go back to the moon,” one administration official is quoted in the Orlando Sentinel as saying, but without explaining why this is a valid value judgment.  Another stated that the budget is intended to “send a message that it's time members of Congress recognize that NASA can't design space programs to create jobs in their districts.  That's the view of the president.” 

So, the entire argument for canning the Constellation appears to be a tired re-run of the Luddite lambasting of the Apollo missions.  A complete waste, we were told back then.  A useless exercise to collect moon rocks, hit golf balls in space, and funnel money to fat-cat aerospace companies. Obama’s advisers seem to forget the endless list of consumer items we now use every day of our lives that have their genesis in the technologies developed for the Apollo program.