2:54 PM, Nov 8, 2012 • By DANIEL HALPERThe U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, James Smith, told the Arabic news outlet Asharq Al-Awsat that American foreign policy will now change after President Barack Obama's reelection. Smith made the comments at an election night party at his residence.
Read more... 6:00 AM, Nov 4, 2012 • By JAY COSTThe Romney campaign seems to have committed to a late push into Pennsylvania, to the derision of Team Obama. The latter sees this as a desperation ploy by a foundering campaign, similar to John McCain’s late entrance into the Keystone State in 2008. Is that right?
Read more... 6:00 AM, Nov 2, 2012 • By JAY COSTWhen I started making election predictions eight years ago, I had a very different perspective than I do today. I knew relatively little about the history of presidential elections or the geography of American politics. I had a good background in political science and statistics. So, unsurprisingly in retrospect, I focused on drawing confidence intervals from poll averages.
Read more... Four scenarios for the next four yearsNov 5, 2012, Vol. 18, No. 08 • By JAMES W. CEASERFor the small school of political analysis that draws its inspiration from the great French 17th-century philosopher René Descartes, the cardinal methodological rule is to begin from what one can know “so clearly and distinctly as to exclude all ground of doubt.” The only important fact about the election contest today that meets this stringent threshold is that someone named either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will be declared president, most likely on November 7.
Read more... 7:20 AM, Oct 22, 2012 • By JAY COSTElections these days are determined in part by the swing of unaffiliated voters, which both sides closely contest. They also hinge on how strongly each party’s base turns out to vote.
Read more... 2:02 PM, Oct 18, 2012 • By JOHN MCCORMACKThe New York Times reports today that the "the Obama campaign and Democratic groups have run commercials relating to abortion about 30,000 times since July 2 — about 10 percent of their ads — including one that falsely claimed Mr. Romney’s opposition to abortion extended to cases of rape and incest."
Read more... 3:00 PM, Oct 17, 2012 • By MARK HEMINGWAYA few weeks ago, I attended a panel discussion at the National Press Club where the heads of all of the major media 'fact checking' organizations participated. (I wrote about the event here.)
Read more... Do you owe the Obama campaign money? By the way, political campaigns know what porn sites you frequent. 1:56 PM, Oct 16, 2012 • By MARK HEMINGWAYA few weeks ago, I inveighed against the increasingly Orwellian psychological tactics being employed by the Obama campaign. It didn't seem like things could get much worse than asking you to upload photos of your personal pledges to the president, and smart phone apps that show maps telling you the political affiliation of your neighbors.
I was wrong. So very, very wrong. Here's the email I recently got from the Obama campaign:
Read more... Oct 22, 2012, Vol. 18, No. 06 • By WILLIAM KRISTOLIn the first presidential debate of 2012, we saw, up close and personal, what Harvey Mansfield called in last week’s issue the ennui of Barack Obama. Obama’s ennui is related to his dislike for the real challenges of governing. More fundamentally, his ennui reflects his declinism. What’s exciting about governing for the next four years if it’s just going to involve managing austerity at home and decline abroad?
Read more... 6:00 AM, Oct 10, 2012 • By JAY COSTSo where are we, four weeks out? Romney suddenly finds himself with a lead in the polls, making liberals panicked and conservatives jubilant -- an interesting change of pace.
Read more... 8:53 AM, Oct 9, 2012 • By MARK HEMINGWAYThe Obama campaign is out this morning with a sarcastic ad all about Big Bird, mocking Romney for wanting to eliminate the federal subsidy for PBS. The press is already pointing out the Obama campaign is playing "small ball" in the wake of Obama's disastrous debate performance, even as Romney has subsequently given a major foreign policy address and otherwise elevated his campaign.
Read more... And Romney’s achievement.Oct 15, 2012, Vol. 18, No. 05 • By HARVEY MANSFIELD
Two things were notable in the debate on October 3: the ennui of Barack Obama and the twist made by Mitt Romney.
Read more... 3:02 PM, Oct 5, 2012 • By MARK HEMINGWAYYesterday, at a rally in Wisconsin, a combative Obama characterized Romney's comments at the debate this way:
Now, last night, this may have actually been the real Mitt Romney, because he ruled out raising a dime on taxes on anyone ever, no matter how much money they make; ruled out closing those loopholes that are giving $4 billion of corporate welfare to the oil companies; refused to even acknowledge the loophole that gives tax breaks to corporations that move jobs overseas.
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