Pennsylvania

A Rasmussen poll of likely voters in the “four key states” of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, shows Rick Santorum leading President Obama by 5 percentage points among independents, while Obama leads Mitt Romney by 3 percentage points among that crucial group of voters.

A new Quinnipiac poll shows that President Obama is now trailing both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney among independents in the crucial swing states of Florida and Ohio.

As John McCormack reports, some leading Pennsylvania Republicans are apparently flirting with the idea of changing the state’s method of allocating electoral votes from the usual winner-take-all method—the norm since the American Founding—to a method of allocating one electoral vote for each congressional district (with the remaining two votes going to the statewide winner). For a variety of reasons, this idea doesn’t deserve to get off the ground.

If there is a must-win state for President Obama, it’s Pennsylvania. The only time that Republican presidential candidates win Pennsylvania is when they don’t need it, while no Democrat has won the presidency without Pennsylvania in the past 60 years.

The Allentown Morning Call reports:

Ben Smith reports today that Joe Sestak is distancing himself from the J Street sponsored, "infamous" (in the words of the Orthodox Union), anti-Israel letter accusing Israel of "collective punishment" for defending itself against Hamas terrorists bent on murdering Israelis. Collective punishment is specifically designated as a war crime by the Geneva Conventions, and the term's use was rejected by all but 12 percent of the House, all Democrats now known as the Gaza 54. That number dropped to 53 when Yvette Clark distanced herself from the letter almost immediately after it was sent to President Obama.

Welcome. This is a regular feature I'll be offering every weekday, first thing in the morning. Basically, what I'll do is flag the most notable stories of the 2010 midterm campaign, and provide my two cents on what's really happening. 

JTA's Ron Kampeas reports on the brouhaha developing in Pennsylvania between Democratic Senate candidate Joe Sestak and the Emergency Committee for Israel:

Ed Rendell has been dogged for months by rumors of a possible romantic relationship with a 40-year-old aide. A Philadelphia magazine reports on the rumors in an issue hitting newsstands Friday, but apparently finds no one who will go on the record, and no real concrete evidence.

In other words, if the subject were a Republican running for president, you'd call this piece New York Times quality.

Conventional wisdom is settling. Tuesday night was a bad night for the establishment, a bad night for Republicans, and a relatively good night for Democrats. The results, we are told, should make strategists and political analysts reevaluate the growing sense that Republicans are poised to do very well in November. White House political adviser David Axelrod is calling it a "good night" for Democrats.

Really?

Pittsburgh

Barack Obama beat John McCain in Pennsylvania by 11 points (55% to 44%) in 2008. A new poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Obama's approval rating in the Keystone state at 46%, with 50% of voters disapproving.

Only 42% of voters say they support "President Obama’s health care plan," and 49% oppose it.

Republican Senate candidate Pat Toomey leads Democrat Arlen Specter 46% to 43%.