9:01 AM, Apr 23, 2014 • By WILLIAM KRISTOL
The Arkansas Senate race has been close in virtually every serious poll. The Republican challenger, Tom Cotton, probably had a small lead a month or so ago; after a massive negative assault on him by Harry Reid's Super PAC, the Democratic incumbent, Mark Pryor, is probably now ahead by a point or two. That's the story told by every reputable public and private poll, including, I'm told, polls by both campaigns.
So what's up with the New York Times/Kaiser Family Foundation poll released today showing Pryor up by 10 points?
What's up is revealed if one burrows into the complete poll results. Look at question 12, here:
In other words, the Times and Kaiser have produced a sample in Arkansas that reports they voted in 2012 for Romney over Obama--by one point. But Romney carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3.
The whole point of question 12 is to provide a reality test for the sample. That's why they ask that question--we know what happened in 2012, so the only thing to be learned by asking the 2012 question of the sample is to ensure that it's a reasonably accurate snapshot of voters in the state. Of course there'll always be some variance between reality and the sample's report of its vote a year and a half ago--but not a 23 point variance.
A reputable news organization would have looked at question 12 and thrown the poll out. But then again, it was the New York Times.
10:23 AM, Apr 18, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Jack Kingston, the Savannah-based Republican congressman running for the U.S. Senate, has been endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Here's more from the Washington Post:
"Now more than ever we need conservative leaders with a demonstrated record of fighting for Georgia jobs, and that leader is Jack Kingston. As senator, Jack will help lead America’s comeback and lay the groundwork for more jobs, more growth, and a generation of prosperity," said Rob Engstrom, the business group's political director.
Democrats' "culture of corruption" provides an opening for CA GOP.9:20 AM, Apr 15, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
The Republican party's best chance to win a statewide office in California for the first time since 2006 all started with a check for $800. Pete Peterson’s wife Gina is graphic designer in Santa Monica who owns her own business, a limited liability company. Last year, she was getting ready to pay her company's annual $800 licensing tax to the secretary of state’s office, which oversees business licensing. Only in California are LLCs taxed so much just to keep a license. In Delaware, the annual tax is just $300, and in Missouri, it’s just a one-time $50 free.
3:12 PM, Apr 10, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
A new poll released Thursday found New Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen with an eight-point lead over her Republican challenger for the Senate, Scott Brown. The survey of registered voters, conducted by Democratic polling firm PPP on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters, found 49 percent would support Shaheen, the first-term incumbent, with 41 percent supporting Brown.
12:28 PM, Apr 9, 2014 • By ADAM J. WHITE
As the Boston Red Sox collected their World Series rings last Friday, Boston faithful had much to be thankful for. And among those to whom they owed more than a little thanks was Bill James, the team's official analytical guru, who enjoyed an increased role in team decision-making after the team fell to pieces in 2012.
2:32 PM, Apr 8, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
A new poll from Talk Business found Mark Pryor, the sitting Democratic senator from Arkansas, with a three-point lead over Republican challenger Tom Cotton. The survey of more than 1,000 likely voters found 45.5 percent said they would vote for Pryor, while 42.5 percent said they would vote for Cotton.
The poll also found that Pryor has a 10-point lead among women, while Cotton has a 7-point lead among men and just a 5-point lead among white voters.
9:29 AM, Apr 8, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Republican Scott Brown leads incumbent Democratic senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire by five points in a recent poll obtained by THE WEEKLY STANDARD. The poll, commissioned by the Republican Governor's Association, was conducted on March 19 and 20 and asked 600 likely voters in New Hampshire who they would vote for in the U.S. Senate election. Respondents were given both Brown and Shaheen's names and their respective parties.
4:34 PM, Apr 4, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Arkansas senator Mark Pryor, a Democrat up for reelection this year, told local station KARK-TV he would have still voted for Obamacare despite all the law's problems.
"A lot of our premiums have really shot up, those of us who have had to pay these premiums," said the KARK host. "Knowing now what you know now, would you have voted for this back then?"
1:26 PM, Apr 1, 2014 • By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON
A newly released ABC News/Washington Post poll has some liberals feeling giddy. The poll shows Obamacare suffering from only a 2-point public-approval deficit among registered voters—with 48 percent in support and 50 percent in opposition. According to RealClearPolitics, that’s the best polling result for Obamacare since the last time ABC News and the Washington Post asked that same question (in late January), at which point Obamacare suffered from a 1-point deficit—47 to 48 percent. In other words, the new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that Obamacare is slightly less popular than it was two months ago. This is the polling result for which liberals have been waiting?
11:47 AM, Mar 18, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
A new poll from a Democratic firm finds Colorado senator Mark Udall in a close race with the leading Republican challenger, House member Cory Gardner. PPP polls discovered in its poll of registered voters that 42 percent support Udall, the Democrat, while 40 percent would vote for Gardner. Another recent poll found a similar margin between the two candidates.
11:31 AM, Mar 13, 2014 • By GEOFFREY NORMAN
Pollsters call it the “rally effect.” In a crisis, people tend instinctively, if abstractly, to support their leaders. The signature example being that, when the Bay of Pigs invasion ended in failure, John F. Kennedy’s poll numbers went up.
5:56 PM, Mar 10, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Republican congressman Paul Broun is leading a field of five Senate candidates in Georgia, a new poll has found. Broun has 27 percent of the GOP primary vote, according to a poll commissioned by liberal group Better Georgia. Broun's competitors came in relatively far behind, with fellow congressman Phil Gingrey in second with 14 percent, congressman Jack Kingston with 13 percent, and businessman David Perdue with 12 percent. Former secretary of state Karen Handel registered 9 percent support.
5:01 PM, Feb 20, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
The 2014 Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Georgia remains effectively tied up among the five top candidates, according to a new poll. Businessman David Perdue, a first-time candidate and cousin of former governor Sonny Perdue, has the lead with 12.7 percent, the Daily Caller reports.
2:22 PM, Feb 19, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Republican Senate candidate Tom Cotton has a four-point lead over incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor in a new poll of the Arkansas race. According to the new Impact Management Group poll, 46 percent of likely Arkansas voters said they would support Cotton, the first-term congressman from Dardanelle, and 42 percent said they'd vote for Pryor.