Polls

Too bad for President Obama that he saved his aggressive performance for his second debate with Mitt Romney. If he had done as well in the first debate, the presidential race might look different today.

CBS's poll of uncommitted voters points to draw at the second presidential debate:

Moments following the debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., 37 percent of voters polled said the president won, 30 percent awarded the victory to Romney, and 33 percent called it a tie. 

The latest polling from USA Today/Gallup shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by 4 percentage points — 50 to 46 percent — among likely voters in swing states.  USA Today writes, “As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney.”

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania by only 4 points, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. Of the 1,519 likely voters in Pennsylvania polled, 50 percent support Obama and 46 percent support Romney. That's an 8-point swing in Romney's favor from the previous Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania, which showed Obama with a healthy 54 percent support and Romney with just 42 percent.

In a poll conducted by the left-leaning Public Policy Polling for the Daily Kos and Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama, 50 percent to 46 percent.

The newly released Washington Post/ABC News poll of likely voters says that if the election were held today, Democrats would enjoy a 9-point advantage over Republicans in voter turnout (35 to 26 percent), and President Obama would beat Mitt Romney by 3 percentage points (49 to 46 percent).

Mitt Romney has broken the 50 percent threshold of support in Florida and leads Barack Obama by four points in the Sunshine State, according to a new poll from Rasmussen. Of the 750 likely Florida voters polled, 51 percent support Romney and 47 percent support Obama. That's Romney's largest lead in Rasmussen's Florida polling.

Since about the beginning of President Obama’s tenure, the Gallup poll has generally been one of the least positive polls for the Democratic party. This has prompted outrage and pressure from the left--even from presidential advisor David Axelrod.

Republican Tom Smith, once thought a long-shot for the U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania, continues to close in on his Democratic opponent, incumbent senator Bob Casey, Jr. A new poll of 725 likely voters from the Republican-affiliated firm Susquehanna Polling and Research shows a 2-point race, with 46 percent of voters supporting Casey and 44 percent supporting Smith.

Here's more from Politics PA:

I've been wary of comparisons of this year's presidential race with that of 1980. I'd love it if the comparison holds, but have been worried 1) that the conditions aren't the same as in 1980 in all kinds of ways, and 2) that over-confidence the race will inevitably break to Romney at the end, as the 1980 race did to Reagan, could lead to complacency on the right rather than a sense of urgency, including a sense of urgency in pushing the Romney campaign to improve.

Exactly four weeks before Election Day, Mitt Romney has taken the lead in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of recent polling.

Among the nine key swing states, Pennsylvania is the closest thing to a must-win for President Obama.  Until the first presidential debate, he was comfortably ahead in the Keystone State.  But two polls taken either entirely or partly after the debate show Obama’s lead having dwindled to just 3 percentage points or less.