From the recovery.
10:43 AM, Aug 27, 2014 • By GEOFFREY NORMAN
Slow growth is bad for everyone. Including the government, which depends (sort of) on tax revenues to do its job. Now, as Kasia Klimasinska of Bloomberg reports:
The budget deficit in the U.S. this year will be wider than predicted four months ago as weaker-than-expected economic growth in the first half hurt tax revenue, the Congressional Budget Office said. The projected shortfall will be $506 billion in the 12 months ending Sept. 30, compared with an April prediction for $492 billion, the nonpartisan CBO said today in a report … The economy will expand 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 from the same period last year, compared with 3.1 percent growth predicted in February, the CBO said. Unemployment this year will average 6.2 percent before declining to an average of 5.9 percent next year, it said.
This counts as a nuisance in Washington where, if the money doesn’t come in, you just go into deficit.
But out in the provinces, 1.5 percent growth translates into … backing up.
Half the country believes we are still in a recession. Which, for them, we are.
9:01 AM, Jun 26, 2014 • By GEOFFREY NORMAN
Reports from the economic front, this week, have been discouraging. Especially yesterday's revise in first quarter GDP to almost three percent negative growth. A contraction, in other words. Another one of those, on the back of that one, and we are officially in a recession.
8:42 AM, Jun 19, 2014 • By GEOFFREY NORMAN
Weekly first time unemployment claims came in almost exactly as expected (which, in itself, is sort of unexpected) at 312,000. One thousand less than economists were predicting and 6,000 less than last week. Which amounts to something like treading water. We aren’t drowning, but we aren’t getting any closer to shore, either.
10:19 AM, May 15, 2014 • By GEOFFREY NORMAN
More evidence that the legs of the long economic recovery may be getting less wobbly. First-time jobless claims fell, last week, to a seven-year low and beat, on the downside, economists’ predictions by a large margin.
2:38 PM, May 13, 2014 • By GEOFFREY NORMAN
But just how bad was the first quarter for the American economy? Commerce Department GDP came in at .1 percent growth, which is treading water, but barely.
3:27 PM, Apr 18, 2014 • By GEOFFREY NORMAN
Politicians looking for work and calling themselves “Democrats” are being advised to avoid using the word “recovery.” As the AP reports:
Election-year memo to Democratic candidates … Stan Greenberg, James Carville and others wrote that in head-to-head polling tests the mere mention of the word "recovery" is trumped by a Republic
11:01 AM, Sep 24, 2013 • By GEOFFREY NORMAN
Consumer confidence fell to 79.7 in September from last month's (revised 81.8).
9:03 AM, Aug 23, 2013 • By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON
President Obama likes to talk about income inequality, but what matters far more is the actual income of the typical American. And how has the typical American household income fared on Obama's watch? Well, the economic "recovery" has now spanned an Olympiad, and during that time the typical American household income has not only dropped—it has dropped more than twice as much as it did during the recession.
2:30 AM, Oct 17, 2012 • By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON
“Well, we’ve gone through a tough four years.” That line from Tuesday night’s presidential debate wasn’t particularly surprising. It was, after all, exactly what one would expect Mitt Romney to say about President Obama’s tenure in office. What was surprising was that it wasn’t Romney who uttered those words. It was Obama.
8:02 AM, Sep 27, 2012 • By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON
Americans must be wondering how much more of this “recovery” they can afford. New figures from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, compiled by Sentier Research, show that the typical American household’s real (inflation-adjusted) income has actually dropped 5.7 percent during the Obama “recovery.” Using constant 2012 dollars (to adjust for inflation), the median annual income of American households was $53,718 as of June 2009, the last month of the recession. Now, after 38 months of this “recovery,” it has fallen to $50,678 — a drop of $3,040 per household.