1:54 PM, Jul 21, 2014 • By MARK HEMINGWAY
Over at the New York Times, Nate Cohn throws cold water on the notion that 2014 is going to be a landmark year for the GOP:
The Republicans will have a good chance of picking up the Senate without an anti-Democratic wave. There are so many Democratic-held seats up for grabs in red and purple states this year that the G.O.P. could take the Senate under neutral conditions. Candidates like Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Kay Hagan of North Carolina, for instance, won by modest margins in 2008, even though it was an excellent year for Democrats and even though they were bolstered by huge black turnout.
But if a wave doesn’t materialize, and if Republicans don’t post victories in Democratic-tilting states like Iowa or Colorado, it will be hard to consider 2014 a great year for Republicans. That will be true even if they take the Senate by taking advantage of a favorable map. The Republicans don’t need more evidence of their ability to win with low Democratic turnout in states like Louisiana and Alaska heading into 2016. Fortunately for the G.O.P., there are still more than three months to go.
Aside from Cohn's specious assertion that "the economy and the deficit are both in a better place than they were in 2010," his analysis here looks pretty sound. Cohn's right that the question about this election is not whether or not the GOP can take back the Senate—the structural advantages Republicans enjoy make that pretty likely.
The more pertinent question is, will the GOP be able to carry any gains won in this election past the next election cycle?In 2016, the Senate map won't be nearly as favorable to Republicans. Turnout will also be much higher in 2016, as there is a good chance a popular Democratic presidential candidate will be at the top of the ballot to help the party's Senate candidates along.
Given Obama's fecklessness in the face of global conflagrations and economic and social unrest at home, a lot could change between now and November. But for now, there's no strong evidence of a GOP wave big enough to carry the party past 2014 into rockier waters in 2016.
12:01 PM, Jul 1, 2014 • By FRED BAUER
In late June, the Pew Research Center released "Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology." Breaking the nation's voting public into seven types (plus one type that does not regularly vote), Pew aims to give a more granular perspective on the nation's body politic. Pew's political map can be a helpful tool for Republicans and conservatives looking to chart a path to a sustainable governing coalition.
12:23 PM, Apr 14, 2014 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
The Watertown Daily Times reports that Elise Stefanik beat out Matt Doheny to win the endorsement of the Conservative party in New York's 21st congressional district:
State Conservative Party Chairman Michael R. Long said an “overwhelming” 17 out of 19 members of the executive committee supported Ms. Stefanik because they believe she is a “new face” that “can best deliver a solution.”
11:27 AM, Dec 19, 2013 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Republican state senator Dick Black of Virginia is considering running for the House seat currently represented by retiring Republican Frank Wolf. Black announced on Facebook he was forming an exploratory committee.
10:04 AM, Nov 26, 2013 • By MICHAEL WARREN
The politics of Obamacare have erased a lead Democrats once held in the generic congressional ballot for the 2014 elections, according to a new poll from CNN. Here are the details:
4:41 PM, Nov 5, 2013 • By MICHAEL WARREN
New Jersey governor Chris Christie, a Republican, is on his way to winning big in his bid for reelection Tuesday, and there's already talk he may be on his way to running for president in three years. Speaking to CNN's Jake Tapper, Christie argued he's not a moderate as he's sometimes portrayed.
5:32 PM, Oct 17, 2013 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Louisana governor Bobby Jindal, the two-term Republican and potential presidential candidate, has announced the formation of a new group called America Next. The organization bills itself as a "conservative policy group" that aims to "focus on winning a war of ideas." Here's an excerpt from a mission statement by Jindal on the new group's website:
9:22 AM, Sep 2, 2013 • By WILLIAM KRISTOL
One of American conservatism's leading thinkers, James Ceaser of the University of Virginia, weighs in on "To authorize or not to authorize:"
7:01 AM, Aug 23, 2013 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Baton Rouge, La.
Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal, who also chairs the Republican Governors Association, says Republicans should be doing more to help Ken Cuccinelli in his race for the governorship in Virginia.
2:12 PM, Aug 5, 2013 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Republican state senator Elbert Guillory of Louisiana, who recently switched from the Democratic party, has announced the creation of a new political action committee with the goal of electing black conservatives. Guillory will serve as honorary chairman of Free At Last PAC, which purports to promote "Republican values in all communities." Watch the video below:
9:13 AM, Aug 5, 2013 • By MICHAEL WARREN
The Fox News Sunday panel debates the GOP's tactical divide on Obamacare, including the boss and Heritage Foundation president Jim DeMint:
"On Obamacare, folks from the Tea Party wing including Senator DeMint say no funding the government unless you defund Obamacare," said host Chris Wallace. "Why are they wrong?"
4:52 PM, Jul 30, 2013 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Republican Andy Vidak, the newly elected California state senator from Fresno, won a heavily Democratic and Hispanic district in last week's special election. The Washington Times reports that Vidak succeeded because he and other local Republicans showed up:
3:11 PM, Jul 30, 2013 • By MICHAEL WARREN
New Jersey governor Chris Christie, asked on Tuesday to respond to an ongoing back and forth between himself and fellow Republican Rand Paul of Kentucky, said he was "asked a question" about national security and answered it.
8:04 AM, Jun 14, 2013 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum spoke Thursday at the Faith and Freedom Conference in Washington about the failure of the Republican party and its presidential nominee to speak to the concerns of middle class and working people. Politico's James Hohmann reports: