Polls

Increasingly, pundits are incorporating statistical models into their analysis of the 2012 election. While I was once a purveyor of such predictive models, I really am not anymore. I don't want to bore you with all the wonky details of my flip-flop, but I do want to give you an example of why you should feel comfortable evaluating these models yourselves, based on common sense.

A new poll from Suffolk University shows incumbent Republican senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts remains neck and neck with his Democratic challenger, Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren. Forty-eight percent of likely voters support Brown, placing him in a statistical tie with Warren, who earned 47 percent support. A Suffolk poll from February showed Brown with a more substantial lead, 49 percent to Warren's 40 percent.

By the time he took office in 2009, President Obama had fashioned a reputation as an idealist committed to reforming the way business is done in Washington. But as president, he’s allowed this reputation to fritter away. And what’s left of it is now being destroyed by his harsh and misguided campaign for reelection.

A newly released Fox News poll includes 42 percent Democrats and only 34 percent Republicans — an 8-point Democratic edge — and shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 7 points (46 to 39 percent).  Among independents, however, the poll shows Romney leading by 5 points (34 to 29 percent).

A new poll of Arkansas Democrats shows Barack Obama receiving support from only 45 percent of Democratic primary voters in Arkansas’s Fourth Congressional District, while 38 percent support his underfunded and relatively unknown primary challenger, Tennessee lawyer John Wolfe, Jr. Seventeen percent are undecided in the district poll.

A new poll from Rasmussen shows a dead heat in the Massachusetts Senate race between incumbent Republican Scott Brown and his Democratic challenger, Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren. Both candidates are tied at 45 percent. Here's more from Rasmussen:

A final poll from PPP shows that a referendum supporting a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage and civil unions in North Carolina is on its way to a comfortable win today. According to the poll, 55 percent of voters support the amendment, and 39 percent oppose it. Here's more from the Charlotte Observer:

A new poll from Howey Politics and DePauw University shows Richard Mourdock leading Dick Lugar by 10 points in the Indiana Republican Senate primary. Among GOP primary voters, 48 percent said they would vote for Mourdock, the state treasurer, while 38 percent said they would vote for Lugar, the six-term incumbent senator. The poll shows Mourdock’s largest lead in the primary, which will be held on May 8.

National Journal reports on a new poll that shows incumbent Indiana senator Dick Lugar leading his primary rival, state treasurer Richard Mourdock, 44 percent to 42 percent. The group behind the poll, the Lunch Pail Republicans, is a pro-labor organization supporting Lugar.

In the 39 months that President Obama has held office, party affiliation has swung 10 points against his party.

The latest Rasmussen poll of likely voters shows that 26 percent of Democrats support the repeal of President Obama’s centerpiece legislation — which, of course, was a purely Democratic endeavor that passed without a single Republican vote. Moreover, the poll shows that most of these repeal-supporting Democrats are “strongly” supportive of repeal.

On Wednesday I argued that only a tiny swath of the actual electorate – maybe 10 percent – will be up for grabs in November. Today, I want to answer the obvious follow-up question: what are these voters thinking?