3:11 PM, Jul 29, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
If the midterm elections were held today, the Republican party could expect a three-seat majority in the Senate next year, according to the new poll from the New York Times, CBS News, and YouGov. The poll, which surveyed voters across the 34 states with Senate races via an online panel, finds GOP candidates leading in 8 races for seats currently held by Democrats. The Times gives the Republican party a "60 percent chance" at wresting control of the Senate.
Three races are relatively solid for the Republican candidates—Mike Rounds of South Dakota (27 points ahead), Steve Daines of Montana (16 points) and Shelley Moore Capito (8 points). In Arkansas, Republican congressman Tom Cotton has a 4-point lead over Democratic senator Mark Pryor. In Michigan, Louisiana, Iowa, and North Carolina, the Democratic candidates, including two sitting senators, trail the Republicans by only a point. Meanwhile, the Democrat in Colorado, Mark Udall, leads GOP challenger Colorado by just four points, and Republicans appear to be within striking distance of vulnerable Democrats by trailing by 10 points or fewer in New Jersey, Virginia, and New Hampshire.
In Alaska, leading GOP candidate Dan Sullivan trails Democratic senator Mark Begich by more than 10 points, while another GOP candidate, Mead Treadwell, is within 2 points of Begich. But the Times’s Nate Cohn urges caution with the poll’s Alaska results, noting that poor Internet penetration in the state made it much more difficult to get a representative sample, and a few other polls show a closer Sullivan-Begich race.
What else does the Times/CBS News/YouGov panoramic snapshot reveal about the state of the race four months out? Overall, the Democrats’ firewall appears to be eroding. While South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia have been long gone as far as Democrats were concerned, the objective for the GOP has always been to win at least three of the four reddest states with Democratic incumbents—Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Alaska—in order to win an outright majority. Already Republicans are ahead, by a little, in the requisite three, which tracks with other polls of the races in Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina.
In addition, the risk that Republicans could lose one of their own seats, possibly in Kentucky or Georgia, appears less likely than it did earlier in the year. Kentucky Republican and Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell polls at 50 percent against Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes’s 46 percent, while newly minted Republican nominee David Perdue of Georgia leads Democrat Michelle Nunn 50 percent to 44 percent. McConnell and Perdue aren’t exactly in landslide territory, but in what’s shaping up to be a Republican year, the relative weakness of Grimes and Nunn may be difficult to overcome.
The poll also highlights some surprises of the election season so far. Nobody (well, almost nobody) expected Republican Jeff Bell to actually compete with New Jersey’s Democratic darling Cory Booker, but the conservative activist and 1978 GOP Senate nominee from the Garden State is just seven points behind with four months to go. Booker undoubtedly remains the favorite, but the fact that Bell is within single digits suggests the race may not be over.
Another surprise has been in Iowa, where Joni Ernst is a better candidate than Iowa Republicans could have hoped for to run for retiring Democrat Tom Harkin’s seat. Bruce Braley, the Democratic nominee, has stumbled lately. Ernst’s one-point lead in July isn’t a guarantee of her victory, but as Fred Barnes recently pointed out, she’s an example of the high quality of candidates Republicans have discovered in 2014 that may be the key for the party’s takeover of the Senate.
8:36 AM, Jul 8, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Hillary Clinton's tour promoting her book Hard Choices may be having an effect—though perhaps not the one the 66-year-old former secretary of state might have wanted. A new poll of the potential 2016 presidential field from Quinnipiac, conducted at the end of June, found support for Clinton among Democratic primary voters at 58 percent.
3:01 PM, Jun 30, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
A new poll finds Colorado Republican Cory Gardner neck and neck with the Democratic senator Mark Udall in what's become one of the hottest Senate races of the midterm elections. Rasmussen Reports finds Udall with 43 percent support and Gardner, a two-term congressman, with 42 percent support, a virtual tie between the candidates.
12:10 PM, Jun 24, 2014 • By DANIEL HALPER
Secretary of State John Kerry tells Fox News's James Rosen that the Obama administration does not "do foreign policy by polls." That, the sescretary of state said, is "a good thing."
8:41 AM, Jun 24, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
In a new editorial, the New York Post notes the odds are stacked against New Jersey's Jeff Bell, the Republican challenger to incumbent Democratic senator Cory Booker:
Booker has a war chest of $2.9 million, against a mere $76,000 for Bell. Booker is a Democratic incumbent running in a mostly blue state where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by 700,000. And according to a recent Rassmussen poll, 39 percent of New Jerseyans don’t even know who the heck Jeff Bell is.
10:45 AM, Jun 11, 2014 • By GEOFFREY NORMAN
Sean Sullivan, at the Washington Post, writes that:
As she embarks on a tour to promote her new book, former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton's favorability rating is at its lowest point since 2008, a new Gallup poll released
10:33 AM, Jun 9, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Iowa Senate candidate Joni Ernst, a Republican, leads her Democratic opponent Bruce Braley by five points, according to a new poll from Republican polling firm Vox Populi. The survey of "active voters" (culled from registered voters who voted in the last two elections) in Iowa found 49 percent support or lean toward Ernst, while 44 percent support or lean toward Braley.
2:30 PM, Jun 6, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Republican Senate candidate Joni Ernst of Iowa leads her Democratic opponent, Bruce Braley, by nearly seven points in a new poll from Loras College. Fresh off her victory in the GOP primary Tuesday, Ernst has 48 percent support from likely voters in a new poll from Loras College. Braley, a four-term congressman, has 41.7 percent support.
Hosted by Michael Graham.3:55 PM, May 16, 2014 • By TWS PODCAST
THE WEEKLY STANDARD Podcast with editor William Kristol on why the GOP shouldn't rest on its laurels when it comes to poll numbers and why they should continue the offensive through to November.
1:13 PM, May 15, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Monica Wehby, a Republican candidate for Senate in Oregon, leads her primary opponent Jason Conger by 17 points in a new poll by a GOP polling group supporting Wehby. New Republican, which has been running TV ads on Wehby's behalf, polled 500 likely primary voters in Oregon and found 41 percent support Wehby, a pediatric neurosurgeon and first-time candidate, while 24 percent support state senator Jason Conger.
12:40 PM, May 15, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
Republican Senate candidate Joni Ernst of Iowa has a double-digit lead over her closest primary opponent in a new poll from Loras College. The survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters found Ernst, a state senator, with 30.8 percent support, while businessman Mark Jacobs comes in second with 19.3 percent support.
Sam Clovis and Matt Whitaker come in behind with 9.5 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively, while 29.2 percent remain undecided.
4:31 PM, May 12, 2014 • By GEOFFREY NORMAN
This headline from TPM:
Voter Enthusiasm Lower Than Usual In 2014 -- Especially Among Democrats
It breeds a sort of instant response (especially among Democrats)
8:54 AM, May 12, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
A new poll of registered voters in Arkansas shows Democratic sentaor Mark Pryor leading his Republican challenger, Tom Cotton, by 11 points. Pryor receives 51 percent support, while Cotton has 40 percent, according to an NBC News/Marist poll released Monday.
But is she 'wimping out' of a primary debate?8:36 AM, May 2, 2014 • By MICHAEL WARREN
A new poll shows Republican Monica Wehby leading incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley for the first time in the race for U.S. Senate in Oregon. The poll, conducted for the Daily Caller by Vox Populi Polling, asked registered voters who they are supporting in the race, with 40 percent saying they'd support Wehby, a pediatric neurosurgeon and first-time candidate, and another 5 percent saying they are leaning toward voting for her.