spending freeze

Yesterday the Senate voted 60-39 to increase the United States debt ceiling to $14.3 trillion. It's likely that if Scott Brown were in the Senate instead of Paul Kirk, the increase would not have passed and Democrats would have had to negotiate a different version.

Debt is quickly becoming the defining issue of our times. One of the reasons health care collapsed was the public's understanding that there is no realistic way to increase government obligations while shrinking government spending (accounting tricks notwithstanding). The CBO's latest long-term budget outlook is absolutely dismal. Obama endorsed the deficit commission and non-defense discretionary spending freeze to counter the GOP critique that he and the Democrats are big spenders. It will take more than a toothless commission and a negligible reduction in spending to change public attitudes, however.

The State of the Union address Obama delivered last night gave new meaning to the term "laundry list." It was an endless parade of campaign promises and presidential initiatives. It had no theme. The text literally could have been clipped together from the hundreds of speeches, press conferences, and town halls the president has delivered since beginning his run for the presidency three years ago.

People tuned in to see if the president would "pivot" to the center after Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts. The answer is no. He doubled-down on the stimulus--indeed, he wants another, much smaller, version. He called on the Senate to pass a climate bill that has absolutely no chance in 2010. He provided no clear strategy for Congress to pass a health care bill. His feints to the center on spending and "tax cuts" were transparently gimmicky. He used his favorite crutch: blame Bush and the Republicans for every obstacle his presidency encounters. He attacked and distorted a Supreme Court decision in front of the justices. By the time he got to foreign policy, you were no doubt looking at your watch. I know I was. By the time he finished, the feeling in the House chamber must have been exhaustion.

What a disappointing presidential address. What a bad omen for the Democrats in November.

President Obama will deliver his first State of the Union address (or SOTU in D.C.-speak) today, in the midst of a full-scale Democratic panic attack. Read Jim Treacher's preview. Drinking game here.

Typically, the State of the Union is the worst sort of presidential address: a mind-numbingly tedious laundry list of foreign and domestic initiatives, with another list of feel-good or sob-stories appended to the end for easy applause. Tonight's speech is worth watching, however, just for the chance to see how Obama deals with the setbacks of the last week. Based on the lines that Robert Gibbs previewed on the morning shows, I expect Obama to focus heavily on the economy while denouncing the "special interests" that stand between the American people and the "change" they voted for in November 2008.

Let's just say there might be political and psychological benefits to backing Obama on this one. Read along with me:

Over the weekend, President Obama threw his weight behind a proposal to establish a commission that would recommend changes to spending, taxes, and entitlements. But Obama's support couldn't save the Conrad-Gregg deficit commission legislation in the Senate. Today the bill was defeated 53-46, with Lisa Murkowski abstaining. (Fifty-three senators actually voted for the bill, but it needed 60 according to Senate rules.)

Paul Krugman, probably the world's most influential columnist, has long been skeptical of Barack Obama. These days, his skepticism is turning into disdain. If you read Krugman's blog, he often writes about Obama as if the president were a Republican--i.e., not favorably!

President Obama has proposed a freeze on non-defense discretionary spending. Following Bill Kristol's advice, John McCain backs the freeze. Meanwhile, the president has endorsed a bipartisan commission to examine spending and entitlements. And despite reports that the Democrats might use the reconciliation maneuver to pass a health care bill the public dislikes and does not want, after an election in which the victor campaigned explicitly against the Obama agenda, Obamacare in its current incarnation is dead or close to it. After a year hiatus, American politics is returning to the center.

The instinctive Republican response (see, e.g., this RNC release) to President Obama’s call for a domestic discretionary spending freeze is to dismiss it as not serious—saying, oh, no, it’s not a real freeze because the baseline is high, and anyway he doesn’t mean it, and here’s what he said in the campaign, etc., etc.