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As Minnesota Goes . . .

High political stakes in northern states.

Apr 24, 2006, Vol. 11, No. 30 • By BARRY CASSELMAN
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Minneapolis

MINNESOTA IS AT THE CENTER of a political superstate I call "Minnewisowa"(Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa), which could be a vital battleground for the presidential elections of 2008, as it was in 2004. Minnewisowa has 27 electoral votes (more than Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, or Michigan), and its component states not only vote similarly, but, since 2000, are also among the most competitive "swing" states in the nation.

In this year's midterm elections, all three states have competitive contests for governor. The GOP could pick up the executive posts in Wisconsin and Iowa, with two sitting congressmen as candidates--Mark Green (if he wins the Wisconsin GOP nomination) and Jim Nussle in Iowa. That's the good news for Republicans. The bad news is that both these House seats, now vacated, could be won by Democrats.

The incumbent Republican governor of Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty, is favored to win reelection in a three-way contest that will feature a candidate from the state's Independence party (which previously fielded Jesse Ventura). While it remains to be seen if this candidate can win anything like the 37 percent Ventura achieved, his presence will make it difficult for any Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) candidate to win.

The major battle in Minnesota and the region will be for the Senate seat being vacated by incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton. Congressman Mark Kennedy successfully warded off an intraparty fight for the GOP nomination, and this seat is probably the best opportunity for a GOP pick-up in 2006.

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