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Bush's Off-year Election

Virginia's gubernatorial race is a test of the president's popularity.

Oct 24, 2005, Vol. 11, No. 06 • By FRED BARNES
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Richmond

HISTORY IS NOT on Jerry Kilgore's side. The Virginia governor's election comes one year after a presidential election. And in the last seven races in Virginia, going back to 1977, the candidate of the party in the White House has lost. Kilgore, the former state attorney general, is, like Bush, a Republican. Still, Virginia is a Republican state (both U.S. senators, 8 of 11 House members, solid majorities in the state senate and house). But the governor's race is different. It's partly a referendum on the president.

Popular presidents don't help much. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton saw governors in Virginia elected from the opposition party, Democrat Gerald Baliles in 1985 and Republican Jim Gilmore in 1997. But unpopular presidents can hurt. And that's what Bush is doing now in Virginia. The president won the state handily last year (54 percent to 45 percent) over John Kerry, but he's now hit a rough patch in the polls. Bush is a drag on Kilgore.

Early in 2005, Kilgore was running 5 to 10 points ahead of his Democratic opponent, Lt. Governor Tim Kaine. But as Bush sank, so did Kilgore. The race is now tied, with no single issue dominating the campaign. Democrats, thousands of them with Kerry bumper stickers still on their cars, are highly enthused, Republicans less so. This is bound to affect voter turnout on Election Day, November 8.

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