The final Gallup poll shows that likely voters prefer Republicans to Democrats by a 55% to 40% margin on the congressional ballot. Jay Cost will have more on this in the morning, but suffice it to say that Gallup's final number translates to enormous gains for Republicans. From Gallup: "Taking Gallup's final survey's margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible."
Yes, you read that right: "anywhere from 60 seats" on up. And how accurate has Gallup been in the past? As Jay Cost pointed out: "Only once in 60 years has the Gallup generic ballot underestimated Democratic strength by a significant amount – by 2% in 2006. On average, it slightly overestimates the Democrats, by 0.7%."
More from Gallup:
It should be noted, however, that this year's 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.
But Gallup's poll projects 45% voter turnout--higher than the 40% historical average--which means Gallup could point to even bigger gains. Stay tuned for a special appearance from the Incredible Hulk in the morning.