A newly released PPP/Daily Kos poll shows President Obama and Mitt Romney locked in essentially a dead-heat in Wisconsin — where Obama beat John McCain by 14 percentage points in 2008. The poll (which was taken shortly after Obama came out in favor of redefining marriage) shows Obama with 47 percent support and Romney with 46 percent support. The previous PPP/Daily Kos poll from Wisconsin, taken a month ago, showed Obama leading Romney by 6 points (50 to 44 percent).
The poll in question is a Democratic poll, yet it hardly offers good news for Obama in the Badger State. In fact, while the poll’s respondents gave Obama just a 1-point edge over Romney in the presidential race, those same respondents gave Governor Scott Walker a 4-point edge over Tom Barrett in the state’s upcoming gubernatorial recall election.
As I’ve previously argued, Wisconsin is one of the nine key swing states (among 13 swing states overall) in the 2012 presidential election. Three of those nine are in Democratic-leaning territory (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada), three are in Republican-leaning territory (Florida, Ohio, and Virginia), and three are in essentially neutral territory (Colorado, New Hampshire, and Iowa). If Romney could pull off the upset in either of the two larger states in Democratic territory (Pennsylvania or Wisconsin), he would deliver a major blow to Obama’s reelection prospects. Simply put, Obama cannot really afford to lose Wisconsin.