With eleven days left in the election, a new poll, commissioned by Carly Fiorina’s campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, shows that the Republican candidate for Senate from California has a fighting chance. The race, between Fiorina and Democratic incumbent senator Barbara Boxer has been called by Fred Barnes, “The Most Important Race of 2010.”
The new poll, conducted by the Tarrance Group, has reassuring results for the Republican, though it makes clear that the race itself is “an actual dead heat.” “The race for the US Senate in California is an actual dead heat, with both Fiorina and Boxer standing right at forty-four percent (44%) of the vote,” Dave Sackett of the Tarrance Group writes. “Six percent (6%) of voters are voting for one of the other candidates, and 5% are undecided.”
Although the Fiorina campaign may pick-off a few of Boxer’s supporters during the last few days before the election, its hopes must be placed on the 5 percent who are undecided.
The goal is to “be able to bring focus back onto Boxer [so that the Fiorina] campaign will be able to convert the remaining Independents and undecided voters that it needs to capture a plurality on election day,” Sackett’s memo claims.
In coming to this conclusion, Sackett, though, says that “The final eleven days of the campaign are entirely about weight of message. The trajectory of the last two weeks of tracking clearly shows that the Fiorina campaign has been pitch perfect in terms of message, and have a message arc that can and will close the deal.”
In short, Fiorina has a fighting chance, even if it won’t be easy.
Here’s a copy of the entire memo: