A newly released Fox News poll includes 42 percent Democrats and only 34 percent Republicans — an 8-point Democratic edge — and shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 7 points (46 to 39 percent). Among independents, however, the poll shows Romney leading by 5 points (34 to 29 percent).
In 2008, back when Rasmussen’s polling on party affiliation showed Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 7 percentage points (40 to 33 percent), Democratic turnout in the election exceeded GOP turnout by 7 points (39 to 32 percent) — and Obama won by 7 points (53 to 46 percent). By the end of the month in which Obama took office, Rasmussen showed Democrats enjoying an 8-point lead in party affiliation (41 to 33 percent). Now, after nearly three and a half years of Obama, Rasmussen shows party affiliation favoring Republicans by 2 points (35 to 33 percent) — a 10-point swing since the week after Inauguration Day.
But surely the Fox News poll is right: If the Democratic party has not lost any support since 2008 (and perhaps has even gained some), Obama will win.