In the midst of a deluge of correspondence from learned readers correcting, amplifying and elaborating on my little post yesterday comparing the passage of Obamacare, next week’s elections, and November 2012 to Borodino, Leipzig, and Waterloo (I’m learning a lot about the historiographic controversies on the Napoleonic wars!), came this e-mail from an old friend and savvy political pro:
Tonight's Gallup poll and summary is very compelling. What is even more significant, I think, is that since October 1st there has not been one national poll asking the generic ballot question--other than Newsweek's poll--where the Democrats have registered over 43%. Thus, while the margins of these many polls have varied from GOP plus three or four to GOP plus 15, the incumbent party is registering in the 39-43 range no matter who does the survey other than Newsweek.
Given the current disposition toward independents, and the tendency for turnout to be influenced a bit by both whom people think will win and, of course, by party enthusiasm, it is hard not to conclude that the Democrats will come in around 43% on Tuesday. This would, of course, produce an overwhelming Republican landslide that dwarfs anything that has happened in our lifetimes.
Individual congressional polls seem to suggest this is where we are headed. Real Clear Politics now has 225 seats in the lean, likely, solid GOP column and only 178 in the lean, likely, solid Dem column. There are 32 tossups. If the GOP carries 19 of the 32 tossups (a 57-43% split) it translates into 244 seats or a 66 seat gain--and that assumes that none of the “lean Dem” seats are lost due to a decisive GOP turnout edge.
On the Senate side, it looks like Toomey has righted the ship and is pulling away. Although it is not as decisive, Kirk has now led in a number of consecutive polls by 3 or 4, and tonight two polls have Buck back ahead by one and four points.
Assuming we win PA, IL and Colo plus ND, Ind, Ark and Wisc we are at 48.
Now add Nevada. I am increasingly confident that Angle will pull this out. Sandoval is now leading by 24 points in two surveys against his Reid, and that has to impact turnout. Moreover, Angle has now led in every poll since October 11th and is plus four in both Rasmussen and CNN/Time. Importantly Reid is stuck at 45-47 and has never hit 50. Good chance this is the 49th seat.
So, we have to win one more to tie and two to control but that looks hard. We are behind and appear to be losing ground in Connecticut and now West Virginia. Fiorina has a shot since Boxer seems stuck in the mid 40s but Brown seems to be pulling away and that could be decisive (although I would not be surprised to see some people vote for Brown and then against Boxer on the theory that electing two liberals is a mistake this year). Finally, Washington. Latest polls all have Murray plus two and near 50. While a turnout wave could bring her down, it will be tough. However, she is the top of the ticket this year and I am hard-pressed to believe that disheartened Dems even in Washington State are going to go the extra mile to vote Tuesday. It will be very close.
If we only had Delaware............
Sounds about right—but Jeff Anderson’s post makes me wonder whether my friend may be a little pessimistic about the Senate. If Republicans have to win 2 out 3 of WV, CA, and WA to take the Senate—for reasons Jeff explains—I think the odds of that are 50-50. Still would be nice to have Delaware.