I spoke with two pros, each of whom has seen tracking polls from last night. The data are similar. There’s a stable Brown lead at around the Suffolk/7 News public poll level (+4). Brown lost some Democrats and saw some increase in his negatives (what you’d expect, given a massive, late partisan assault), and there was some increase in Democratic intensity.
On the other hand, Brown compensated by continuing to pick up independents. The phenomenon of Democrats coming home suggests there could be some further erosion in Brown’s numbers. On the other hand, the big Brown advantage over Coakley in fav/unfav might limit that, is terrible for Coakley’s prospects among independents, and generally is bad for Coakley’s chances of a late rally.
A nail-biting weekend ahead.