Stefanik, a small businesswoman and former economic and domestic policy staffer in the George W. Bush administration, leads wealthy investment banker Matt Doheny 45 to 37 percent, according to the survey by GOP firm Harper Polling.
Rep. Bill Owens (D., N.Y.) announced his retirement from the seat in January, prompting Republicans to view the mostly rural and historically GOP-leaning district as a potential pickup in the midterm elections.
Stefanik leads both tea party (51 to 38 percent) and non-tea party voters (41 to 38 percent) and portrays herself as a candidate who can unite factions of the GOP. She has secured endorsements from 11 of 12 GOP county committees in the district and elected officials such as Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.), for whom she served as director of debate prep for his vice presidential run in 2012.
THE WEEKLY STANDARD has learned that two other recent polls conducted for organizations involved in the race showed Stefanik with a lead in the low double-digits.