Reporting on the Fed’s latest revision of its forecast on the economy (downward, of course) Pedro Nicolaci da Costa of the Wall Street Journal writes:
Fed officials have conceded their mistakes, as have many private and academic forecasters who not only missed a deep recession but also overestimated the rebound’s likely strength.
So what, one wonders, did they get right?
The answer may lie buried in an old witticism from John Kenneth Galbraith, which da Costa quotes, to the effect that:
… that the purpose of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.