Real Clear Politics on a new PPP poll:
With Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman (D) unknown to most of the state, McCain bests him in a hypothetical matchup by 16 points while Glassman holds a 3-point lead over Hayworth.
McCain 49 - Glassman 33 - Und 18
Hayworth 39 - Glassman 42 - Und 19
A number of commentators have suggested that the Democrats are pushing immigration reform--when it has no chance of passing--because it will help them get their base out. True enough. They're also pushing it because it could easily deliver them a safe Republican seat in Arizona.
J.D. Hayworth has a number of liabilities with conservatives, such as his earmarking and connections to Jack Abramoff. Nevertheless he's been surging in the polls. And though McCain has tacked to the right on immigration, the issue could poison his chances of winning the primary if it remains at the top of voters' concerns. And then, according to the PPP poll, it will be much tougher for Republicans to hold the seat.