The latest poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50 percent to 44 percent among voters in Wisconsin. But PPP finds that if Romney were to pick Congressman Paul Ryan as a vice presidential runningmate, Obama's lead over Romney would drop to just one point:
Obama actually has under water approval numbers in the state. 47% think he's doing a good job, while 48% disapprove. But voters aren't very high on Romney either. Only 41% rate him favorably, while 50% have a negative opinion of him.
One thing that could make the state look like much more of a toss up is if Romney chooses Paul Ryan as his running mate. Ryan has a pretty solid 44/39 favorability rating and if he was on the ticket Obama's lead would decline all the way to 47/46. Ryan's presence has the effect of further unifying the GOP base around Romney and also helping to bring some more independent voters into the fold.
PPP's polls of June 5 gubernatorial race underestimated support for Republican governor Scott Walker. PPP's final poll showed Walker ahead by three points, but he won by seven points, so it's certainly possible that PPP's polls are still skewing Democratic.