One week after Republican governor Scott Walker defeated a recall effort in Wisconsin, Rasmussen has a new poll showing Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 47 to 44 percent in the Badger state:
Mitt Romney now leads President Obama for the first time in Wisconsin where the president's support has fallen to its lowest level to date.
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Romney with 47% of the vote to Obama’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Prior to this survey, Obama's support in the state has ranged from 45% to 52%, while Romney has earned 41% to 45%. Last month, the numbers were Obama 49%, Romney 45%. The president led his likely Republican challenger by 11 points in March - 52% to 41%.
Obama won Wisconsin by a whopping 14 points in 2008, but Al Gore and John Kerry carried it by razor-thin margins in the two previous presidential elections (Gore's margin of victory: 0.22 percent, Kerry's: 0.38 percent). If Mitt Romney were to win Wisconsin, it would put Obama in a very tough spot: the president would then need to win Virginia, Iowa, and all of the western battleground states (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico). And it looks like the president could be in trouble in Iowa, according to a Rasmussen poll released yesterday. Mitt Romney was ahead of Obama in the Hawkeye state by 1 point--47 percent to 46 percent. It's hard to imagine a plausible scenario in which Obama loses both Iowa and Wisconsin and gets to 270 electoral votes.