Alaska's soon-to-be-former senator Lisa Murkowski only won election in 2004 with 49 percent of the vote. Still, given the fact that 2010 seems to be a much stronger year for Republicans than 2004, you might think Joe Miller would poll better than 50% to 44% against Democratic nominee Scott McAdams (whose name the DNC's spokesman didn't know last week).
Of course, both candidates are fairly unknown right now, and Miller just won a primary by tearing down Lisa Murkowski. I presume the Murkowski dynasty does have some devotees who could be persuaded to support Miller if Lisa Murkowski gets around to supporting Joe Miller. But that appears to be a big "if" at the moment.