Writing in The Week, James Pethokoukis asks the troubling question: “Is the U.S. economic recovery almost over — already?”
The answer to this question is, as always: Who knows? But as Pethokoukis writes:
If history is any guide, we're overdue for another recession. The average length of a post-WWII upturn after a downturn is 58 months. The current recovery, which began in July 2009, has been plugging along for 62 months. But because this recovery has been so weak, even a mild downturn, like the one after the internet stock bubble popped, could conceivably push the jobless rate back over 8 percent.
It hasn’t been much or a recovery – so anemic that half the country doest believe it ever happened – but that does not mean that we won’t miss it when it ends.
As it soon might.