The latest polling from USA Today/Gallup shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by 4 percentage points — 50 to 46 percent — among likely voters in swing states. USA Today writes, “As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney.”
As a result, Obama’s lead among women in swing states has essentially evaporated, while his deficit among men has not. In swing states, the poll shows Obama with only a 1-point lead among women (49 to 48 percent) and an 8-point deficit among men (52 to 44 percent). According to exit polling in 2008, Obama beat John McCain by 13 points among women (56 to 43 percent) and 1 point among men (49 to 48 percent).
USA Today writes, “Among women, more Romney supporters are extremely enthusiastic than Obama supporters, 46% versus 38%. Married women, who tend to vote Republican, are more enthusiastic than unmarried women, who tend to vote Democratic.”
The 12 swing states included in the survey are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, and New Mexico. Obama would go into the swing states with a narrow 5-point lead (196 electoral votes to 191 for Romney), based mostly on the 104 electoral votes he would pick up from California, New York, and Illinois, while Romney is projected to win 23 of the other 35 non-swing states.