The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll projects a 5-point turnout advantage for Democrats over Republicans (34 to 29 percent) yet still shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by 1 percentage point — 49 to 48 percent. This is Romney’s first lead since the summer in Washington Post/ABC News polling. Jon Cohen, director of polling for the Post, writes, “Political independents break for Romney by a 12-percentage-point margin on the subject [of the economy], a high for the campaign.”
As I wrote last week in response to an earlier Washington Post/ABC News poll, which projected a 9-point Democratic turnout advantage and had Obama up 3 points:
“Gallup’s most recent party-affiliation polling shows Democrats with a 4-point advantage (32 to 28 percent). Rasmussen Reports’ most recent party-affiliation polling shows Republicans with a 3-point advantage (37 to 34 percent). Exit polling in 2010 showed turnout split evenly between the two parties (36 percent apiece). Exit polling in 2008, at the height of Obamamania, showed the Democrats with a 7-point turnout advantage (39 to 32 percent). Exit polling in 2006, when the Republicans lost the House and Senate, showed the Democrats with a 2-point turnout advantage (38 to 36 percent). Exit polling in 2004 showed turnout split evenly between the two parties (37 percent apiece).”
In short, it would be surprising if this poll’s projected 5-point advantage for the Democrats in turnout were to materialize.