The results of the six Wisconsin state senate Democratic primaries are in: Five of the six "real" Democratic candidates beat the "protest" candidates (Republicans who ran as Democrats) by 30 to 40 points in expectedly low turnout elections.
The one surprise: "real" Democrat Shelley Moore is beating "protest" candidate Isaac Weix by just 8 points, or about 2,500 votes. The close race in the 10th District suggests that Republican senator Sheila Harsdorf's supporters are fired up and ready to go, as they say. That would be very good news for Republicans, as Harsdorf had appeared to be the third most vulnerable Republican facing recall, and Democrats need to net three seats to take over the senate.
Harsdorf and her farming family have deep roots in the district, and she won reelection with 56.4% of the vote in 2008, outperforming John McCain by 8 points. But Republicans were worried when conservative judge David Prosser lost the district 49 percent to 51 percent this past April. One Republican points out Prosser may have underperformed because conservatives didn't buy TV ads in the Minneapolis-St. Paul media market, which broadcasts in the border district.
In the August 9 recall election, Harsdorf will face Shelley Moore, a teacher and union official who was caught organizing her campaign on school email during school hours. If Harsdorf beats Moore, odds are that Republicans will hold the state senate.