Big day for endorsements. Pat Robertson has taken some time off from claiming to set astounding weight-lifting records and decided to shoulder what could become an even heavier burden: convincing Christian conservatives that Rudy Giuliani shares their values on social issues. Conventional wisdom on this endorsement will be the usual: This is a huge win for Rudy. Look for ponderous Beltway analysis all over cable TV declaring a new Hillary-like invincible lock up on the nomination for Rudy.
Perhaps, but let's look beyond the immediate and think about what effect this really has on the race. I think in the long run a Robertson endorsement will prove a very mixed blessing. First, it will put Rudy and abortion in the spotlight. Rudy's pro-choice record remains pro-choice, whether or not Pat Robertson is now pleased with it. Second, the more pro-life-centric candidates will see this endorsement as a blatant attempt at a daylight robbery of "their voters" by Rudy and his New York heist crew. They won't take that sitting down. Much like a brazen attempt by the Chicago "Outfit" to take over the Gambino and Lucchese rackets in Brooklyn and Queens, the other candidates cannot sit still for this. Now the knives will come out and a serious grind on Rudy's stand on social issues will begin. Look for paid ads and mail telling primary voters many things they still do not know about Rudy Giuliani.
Third, Robertson is at heart a carny and a flake. Rudy will now have to wear him like a hat, gathering unwelcome media attention. This endorsement may prove to be the Balkan pistol shot of 1914 that sparks the final explosive phase of the primary campaign. It is an audacious move by Rudy and will be either a big milestone in Giuliani's path to the nomination, or the one step too far in his risky tango with the abortion issue.
Meanwhile, Brownback goes for McCain. A smaller get perhaps, but an easier story to swallow. McCain has a strong pro-life record, without complications. While all endorsements are overrated, this is another strong piece falling into place as McCain builds his comeback story.
