Everyone knows Huckabee has been surging in Iowa. But some people seem to assume that Huckamania is confined to Iowa. Not so. I've seen two national polls of the Republican race since Thanksgiving. Here there are, with a comparison with the results from the same polling organization from the beginning of November.
On November 1, the Rasmussen tracking poll had:
Giuliani 24
Thompson 15
McCain 14
Romney 14
Huckabee 10
Now Rasmussen has:
Giuliani 20
Huckabee 17
Thompson 14
McCain 13
Romney 11
On Nov. 2-4, USA Today - Gallup had:
Giuliani 34
McCain 18
Thompson 17
Romney 14
Huckabee 6
Now (Nov. 30-Dec. 2), USA Today - Gallup has:
Giuliani 25
Huckabee 16
Thompson 15
McCain 15
Romney 12
In both polls, Huckabee moved from last to second during November. In both polls, all the other four leading candidates lost ground.
Huckabee's surge, if uncontested, is likely to continue for at least a while. One question is, which one (or possible two) of the other candidates can reverse his downward trend, create his own surge, and pick up some momentum? The other question is, can any of them afford to go negative against Huckabee? On the one hand, going negative usually has at least a short-term negative effect on the negative-goer. On the other hand, if Huckabee wins December as he did November, he'll probably win the nomination.
UPDATE, 11:19 a.m.: Today's Rasmussen poll has Huckabee tied with Giuliani among likely Republican primary voters nationwide.
