A few readers have challenged the calculations that led me to conclude that it would be "highly unlikely" for Giuliani to lose every race leading up to Florida and still emerge from that primary with a delegate lead.
Now, I confess to dropping out of calculus three weeks into my senior year of high school, so I called up each state party to confirm how their delegates are awarded. The delegate situation is still a little murky, but you can read below for yourself to assess where things stand.
Before I wade into that swamp though, here's a clarification to my original post: It is possible for Giuliani to assume a delegate lead after losing the first six contests and winning Florida on January 29th if (1) no one else amasses a decisive delegate lead before Florida and (2) you don't count the Iowa and Nevada caucuses, which don't technically elect national delegates until later in the year.
All of the following states, except Iowa and Nevada, have been docked half their national delegation by the RNC for moving their primaries to dates earlier than allowed by the party. Keep on reading only if you find it intriguing or useful to understand the minutiae of delegate apportionment. You can't say I didn't warn you.
Full delegate calculations below the fold...January 3: Iowa caucus, 40 delegates.
Voters in each precinct will elect delegates to their county conventions; these county delegates will in turn elect delegates to the district and state conventions, where the national delegates finally will be chosen by June 14. Got all that?
Estimating how many delegates each candidate may ultimately receive based on the January 3 vote is complicated because:
There is no formal system applied in the Precinct Caucuses to relate the presidential preference of the Caucus participants to the choice of the precinct's delegates to the Republican Convention of the County in which the precinct is located. The participants at each Precinct Caucus alone determine if presidential preference is to be a factor in such choice and, if so, how it is to be applied.
In other words, a county delegate may have pledged on January 3 to vote for Romney, but said delegate is not required by the party or the state to vote that way for district and state delegates. The same rules (or lack thereof) apply to the intermediary votes leading to the final selection of national delegates.
Iowa's 40 delegates are apportioned as follows: 3 delegates are RNC committee members; 22 delegates are elected at the state convention; and 15 delegates are elected by congressional districts (3 delegates for each district).
January 5: Wyoming conventions, 14 delegates.
Twelve county conventions will each elect one national delegate on January 5. The final two delegates will be elected at the state convention on May 30.
January 8: New Hampshire primary, 12 delegates.
Delegates are awarded proportionally to each candidate who receives more than 10 percent of the total statewide popular vote.
In the 2000 primary, for example, McCain received 49 percent of the popular vote, Bush grabbed 30 percent, and Forbes had 13 percent. The national delegates were awarded proportionally among the vote total of those three candidates:
McCain (59 percent): 10 delegates
Bush (29 Percent): 5 delegates
Forbes (12 percent): 2 delegates
January 15: Michigan primary, 30 delegates.
It's unclear exactly how Michigan's delegates will be allocated. Without the sanction, Michigan would have three RNC committee members as delegates, and each of Michigan's 15 congressional districts would award three delegates to their respective district popular vote winners. The remaining 12 delegates would be allocated proportionally, like in New Hampshire, but with a 15-percent threshold.
According to RNC rules, a penalized state party such as Michigan's will lose its three national committee members, and it has the choice to determine which of it's remaining delegates will be seated at the convention. But Michigan Republican party spokesman Bill Nowling tells me, "We're going to apportion 60" delegates and ignore the RNC sanction. Nowling says that the RNC will "have to figure out which ones aren't delegates then."
If Michigan goes ahead and tries to seat all 60 delegates, RNC rules require the committee to remove one delegate "from each of the State's Congressional Districts and the remainder from the State's At-Large" delegates. Under these rules, all 30 delegates would come from the 15 congressional districts (two delegates per district).
January 19, South Carolina primary, 24 delegates.
South Carolina has not clarified how it will allocate delegates to comply with RNC sanctions. Before the penalty, the state planned on awarding 26 delegates to the winner of the statewide popular vote, and each of South Carolina's six congressional districts would award three delegates to their respective district popular vote winners.
State chairman Katon Dawson says that South Carolina will submit a "full slate" of delegates, but in the event the RNC holds the penalty in place, the party would not opt for a winner-take-all system for all of the national delegates, as Florida has opted to do. "That wouldn't be fair" to the congressional districts, says Dawson.
Therefore, in my own estimation, South Carolina would likely adopt the RNC's formula of dropping one delegate per district and the rest from the at-large pool. That means South Carolina would award 12 delegates from six congressional districts (two per district) and 12 delegates to the statewide popular vote winner.
January 19: Nevada caucus, 34 delegates.
Voters in precincts will elect delegates to county conventions, and these county delegates elect the delegates to the state convention on April 26. Whichever candidate receives the most votes at the state convention will receive all 34 Nevada delegates to the national convention, according to Hans Gullickson, caucus director of the Nevada GOP.
As in Iowa, the delegates elected as county and state delegates are not required to vote for their declared January 19 presidential preference, though Gullickson says that "they usually do."
January 29: Florida primary, 57 delegates.
Florida will award all of its 57 delegates to the winner of the popular statewide vote.
