Political journalists love a pre-packaged narrative almost as much as they love artificial historical analogies, which is why Mitt Romney's speech Thursday on religion and public life will dominate the news this week. "The speech" not only figures heavily in the press's Will-Romney's-Mormonism-cost-him-the-nomination narrative, it also bears the faintest of resemblances to John Kennedy's famous "Catholic Speech" during the 1960 campaign. My suspicion is that a speech, even if it's "the speech," won't be enough to persuade voters who dislike Romney because he's a Mormon to give the former Massachusetts governor a second look. Short of Romney's conversion, nothing will persuade those voters.
The decision to deliver "the speech" also speaks to another problem with Romney's campaign, Jay Cost argues. Here's Cost's take:
[Romney's] position in the Iowa polls explains the decision entirely. He's trailing Huckabee in Iowa. A few weeks ago he was up by 14 percent - and he wasn't going to give the speech. Now that he's down, the speech is back on.
This is par for the course for the Romney campaign, in my estimation. His candidacy has been the most transparently strategic this cycle. McCain is up? Go after McCain. McCain is down? Leave McCain alone. Thompson enters the race and seems a threat? Take a cheap shot about Law and Order. Thompson fades? Ignore him. Rudy is up? Go after Rudy. Huckabee is up? Go after Huck. You need to win a Republican primary? Make yourself the most socially conservative candidate in the race. And on and on and on.
Despite such strategic transparency, Romney's trendlines are continuing upward in every early primary state, with the possible exception of Iowa, where his support may plateau. It isn't time to hit the panic button - yet.
