It may seem unbelievable, but there's a strong chance that the Democratic primary race essentially will be won if Obama beats Clinton tonight. I spent some idle time yesterday (yes, I have nothing better to do) spinning a scenario in which Clinton comes second in New Hampshire, then wins the uncontested Michigan primary, whereupon her spinmeisters convince the media that she's the new "comeback kid." But today's Journal table-setter suggests that even the Clinton campaign is beginning to think its days are numbered:
The road may get harder immediately after New Hampshire. The all-important Culinary Workers union in Nevada, the next state to vote on Jan. 19, is considering backing Sen. Obama a day after a New Hampshire win, say some high-ranking Democrats. The support of the state's largest union by far would virtually hand him a victory in the labor-dominated caucuses there, Democrats say. And the Clinton campaign is considering effectively ceding South Carolina, which votes a week later. Her once-strong support in the state's large black population eroded and Sen. Obama opened a big lead in polls after Iowa's caucus results energized many blacks with the prospect that a man of their race stands a realistic chance of being nominated.
This brings up an interesting question. If Barack Obama wins the nomination over the next few weeks, the Democrats will have a presidential nominee subject to scrutiny for nine months until the general election. It also happens that this nominee is subject to media hagiography, and criticism of him has been muted. As James Taranto often points out, favorable media treatment of Democratic pols often blinds them, making them complacent and unable to see their vulnerabilities. It's possible that the Democrats may experience buyer's remorse by summertime - making Bloomberg's entry into the race more likely, and perhaps setting up even more surprising scenarios. Meanwhile, the Republican race shows no signs of ending anytime soon.
Get ready for the Jim Lehrer-moderated debates between Obama, the Republican nominee, Michael Bloomberg, and Ron Paul.
