Tampa, Florida -- So who will win Florida? Ask twenty people -- half of them will tell you Mitt Romney and the other half will say John McCain.
McCain seems to have momentum. All day Monday, reporters and campaign advisers whispered about the latest tracking poll numbers -- some of them done by the campaigns, others private. The figure discussed most today was a private poll that had McCain up by four points heading into tomorrow, a quick reversal of fortunes since the same poll reportedly had him down two points late last week, before he won the endorsement of Florida Governor Charlie Crist. The Crist endorsement, and that of Senator Mel Martinez one day earlier, gave the McCain campaign a generous helping of "earned media" -- i.e. news coverage -- over the weekend and Monday. He could need the help to compensate for a relative lack of organization here, despite the efforts of his staff over the past few weeks. (McCain brochures available at a rally in Tampa yesterday evening had a tear-off form for would-be supporters to fill out and mail in. Judging from the address, those forms would be delivered to the McCain campaign headquarters ... in South Carolina.)
Romney early on won the support of many key supporters of former Governor Jeb Bush, and several people knowledgeable about Florida politics believe that he has a strong advantage on organization. Romney has dominated the airwaves here, too, as he has in other states. (McCain, however, has had a rather substantial television ad buy since early last week and is running $250,000 worth of radio ads around the state, too.)
At the low-key rally at the Tampa Convention Center early yesterday evening, McCain stuck to his basic stump speech, which is heavy on national security themes. The crowd of perhaps three hundred people seemed enthusiastic enough but there was nothing that would suggest a wave of energy not reflected in the polling that would sweep McCain to a big win. (Romney holds a rally in the same location this morning.)
It could be a late night.
