Reading this morning's analysis on line, I'm a little shocked by the number of people writing about the GOP race who think that "It's still competitive, it will go on a long time, they're really going to slug it out. ..." I think, to the contrary, that absent any dramatic developments this week, McCain is likely to put it away next Tuesday. It's true that he hasn't won more than 36 percent of the vote in any primary, so in principle there is a majority anti-McCain coalition available. But exit polls in Florida and elsewhere show the non-McCain and non-Romney vote splitting pretty evenly between McCain and Romney. Add that to Giuliani's endorsement (and Schwarzenegger's), the momentum that comes from winning three of the five major contests so far, and McCain's current strength in almost all of Tuesday's winner- take - all states - and he looks to be in very good shape. McCain isn't a prohibitive favorite, but he's a strong one.
What could change the situation? It's hard to believe paid advertising across 22 states (even if Romney's willing to splurge) could fundamentally change the dynamic. There could always be some sort of scandal, revelation, or gaffe, or course - though that would be far more likely if there were a new, suddenly-emerged frontrunner, than with the most veteran and best-known candidate in the field. So the most likely game-changer, if there were to be one, would be tonight's debate. It's likely to be Romney's last direct shot at McCain. If Romney were to land a really telling blow, it could shape the narrative for the rest of this week. If not, if this debate follows the course of almost all its predecessors and has no decisive moment, then all attention turns to Clinton-Obama, and McCain should have a pretty clear path.
The Romney camp has twelve hours to come up with a startling factoid, formulation, or revelation. The McCain camp has twelve hours to prepare for any such eventuality. If McCain does well tonight, he should be the GOP nominee.
