Update: Over at The Danger Room, Sharon Weinberger links to an English-language copy of the original report. And John at Op-For makes this excellent point: "I've always chuckled at references to China's "asymmetrical" military doctrine. We're the boys with the force-multiplying toys, and China's the one with the big honking Army. Aren't we the asymmetrical ones?"
I've been skeptical of reports that China is planning to deploy an aircraft carrier in the near future, perhaps as soon as 2010. But the rumor is persistent, and the Heritage Foundation's Peter Brookes recently wrote a compelling essay on why the rumors might be true. Said Brookes,
The existence of a Chinese "flattop" program has long been rumored. Sure, some experts scoff at the idea, pointing out that carriers don't fit with China's military doctrine of "asymmetry." . . .
(Critics will point out that carriers have significant vulnerabilities. Jaunty submariners brag those 100,000-ton "bird farms" are nuthin' but big, fat gray targets.)
So, if the experts are right, and China is pursuing a "David and Goliath" strategy against U.S. military might in the Pacific, why would Beijing build carriers?
First, it's always possible the recent news is wrong--just another badly sourced rumor coming out of Hong Kong regarding Chinese military developments.
Second, Beijing could be changing its strategy. It might be looking toward a more balanced naval force that includes aircraft carriers to project power deep into the Pacific. (With its broad expanses of open ocean, there aren't many other ways to operate in the Pacific theater.)
A third option: China may want to "show the flag."
China is, without question, a rising power--world's largest population, No. 2 energy consumer, No. 3 defense budget, No. 4 economy. And so on. It's an up-and-comer. Beijing may well think the time is ripe to proclaim to the world: We're not just a regional power anymore.
I find this third reason particularly persuasive. The Chinese ASAT test earlier this year confirmed Beijing's asymmetric strategy, but it also signaled to the world that China was capable of waging war in space--that it was a military power on par with the Soviet Union and the United States.
An even greater indication of the Chinese desire to "show the flag" is that country's manned space program, which, like this country's manned space program, serves no other purpose than to demonstrate technological superiority and foster national pride. As the party organ People's Daily put it in February of this year under the headline "Why Does China Want to Probe the Moon?", "Sooner or later, China's gorgeous five-star red flag will tower on the moon, and days are not distant for the dream of the Chinese people to come true." Clearly, showing the flag is of some importance to the Chinese.
Now The Marmot's Hole links to this story from the very credible, if reliably left wing, Korean newspaper Hankyoreh Shinmun. According to the report, "China is secretly pushing the construction of a nuclear-powered 'supercarrier' of 93,000 tons." My Korean is a bit rusty, but The Marmot's Hole gives this synopsis:
Citing a source familiar with Chinese military issues, the Hankyoreh Shinmun is reporting that China is secretly pushing the construction of a nuclear-powered "supercarrier" of 93,000 tons.
The source, presenting internal Chinese Communist Party documents, said China plans to build a 48,000-ton conventional-powered aircraft carrier (so-called "Project 085″) and a 93,000-ton monster carrier ("Project 089″). The materials presented said China's Central Military Commission had recently approved both projects and spelled out both vessels' displacement.
I'd still contend that, as Brookes put it, Chinese carriers would be "nuthin' but big, fat gray targets," but that doesn't change the fact that an aircraft carrier would boost Beijing's ability to project "soft power." And deploying a Nimitz-sized nuclear carrier would, like the ASAT test, show that China is to be considered a military superpower.
Again, Brookes:
As opposed to provocative exercises of "hard power" (such as China's January test of a satellite-killer), a friendly ship visit, while still displaying strength, does so in a "soft power" way (think: velvet glove around the iron fist).
The Russian carrier Varyag, which is being refitted in the port of Dalian by the Chinese.
When the Chinese bought the ship from the Ukraine, they claimed it would be used in Macau as a floating casino.
