I had the opportunity this afternoon to sit in on a session at the Heritage Foundation with Dr. Ali Aldabbagh, the spokesman for the Iraqi government. Dr. Ali is in the United States to address both institutions and government officials. His message is that Iraq is making progress on reducing violence and building institutions, and that the premature withdrawal of U.S. forces would help no one but the terrorists.
Dr. Ali began by talking about the success so far of the Baghdad Security Plan. He cited a significant drop in both the number of assassinations and suicide bombings, and he put forth as further evidence of progress the dramatic increase in the number of 'tips' to police about insurgent activity, and the fact that many checkpoints within the city have been dismantled to facilitate commerce. He also said that the lack of trust in law enforcement had been a big reason that some Iraqis were formerly willing to live with militias. While that has changed, Dr. Ali said it will take continued economic progress and international coordination against terrorism to ensure a further decline in violence. He also said that electricity is now available in Baghdad more hours each day than under Saddam; that people have air conditioners where they did not before; that food rations are better than under Saddam, and that the government budget is higher than ever before. Why don't people know the good news? Because the 'voice of a bomb' is louder.
For those who favor the withdrawal of U.S. troops, Dr. Ali had a simple message: it can only make things worse--in Iraq and in the region. It will play into the hands of terrorists, he said, and destabilize the region. Terrorists would fill the power vacuum, to the detriment of the United States, its allies, and its interests.
Dr. Ali also tried to communicate the extraordinary nature of the change that has come to Iraq in the last few years. He said that Iraq had been ruled by dictators for 1,400 years, and now, for the first time, was selecting its own leaders. He said that while there's room to criticize the Iraqi government for early missteps, the people of Iraq don't want to go back to a dictatorship--which is the alternative offered by insurgents.
It was suggested that as some Americans may be aware of improvements in security in parts of Iraq due to 'the surge,' attention is now being shifted to 'benchmarks for progress'--such as oil revenue sharing and political reconciliation. Dr. Ali suggested that an oil revenue sharing law should be in place within two months. That reform will lead to much greater investment in the petroleum sector, and will also show Sunnis and others that they will have 'an equal share' in the nation's wealth.
Dr. Ali called attention to the success that the government has enjoyed in re-opening some of the 193 state-owned enterprises that were shut down before, during, and after the war. Those businesses employed thousands of Iraqis who--without work--may have been more likely to listen to the message of insurgents. Giving them back a job and a salary helps to drain the pool of terrorist recruits.
When he was asked whether U.S. troops are currently involved in a civil war in Iraq, Dr. Ali said 'no'--because there is no civil war, only a war against civilians. He said that the early withdrawal of U.S. troops would lead to more civilian deaths. It would also undercut the resolve of the many Iraqis who have refused to answer violence with violence.
The significant sour note came when Dr. Ali was asked whether there can be progress in Iraq when someone like Moqtada Al Sadr can call for violence against Americans. Dr. Ali said that as long as Saudi leaders are calling the occupation of Iraq by the Americans 'illegal,' Sadr can't be punished for saying it as well. He said that Sadr has not encouraged his followers to violence, because he realizes that he will be held responsible for doing so.
All-in-all, the session was interesting. I didn't get the sense, though, that Dr. Ali realizes how important it is to find a way to communicate his message to Americans clearly and without filters. I also think that the Iraqi government needs to commit to showing progress on political benchmarks at least commensurate with those on security. It's not sufficient for the surge to 'work,' for the US to stand by Iraq and the Maliki government. There must also be a sense that Iraq is making real, substantive progress toward stable government. Critics of the war will find an audience as long as one of those two areas is lacking.
You can read more on Dr. Ali's comments at The QandO Blog.
