The big political news coming out of Europe this week was the election of Nicolas Sarkozy in France. In Washington, the imminent arrival of Sarkozy--already hailed as the "most pro-American president in recent French history" (admittedly, the competition for this accolade is not that stiff)--is seen as welcome news. In his acceptance speech, Sarkozy assured his "American friends" that "France will always be on their side when they need her." At the same time, however, Sarkozy made only brief references to his "European partners," and he failed to mention Germany--traditionally France's closest EU ally. In fact, he spent more time making the case for a Mediterranean Union "linking Europe and Africa" than he did talking about the European Union.
Merkel and Sarkozy, REGIERUNGonline / Kühler
So what are the implications of Sarkozy's election for future relations between Paris and Berlin, the so-called "couple franco-allemand?" In general, German newspaper commentators have welcomed Sarkozy's win and see it as an opportunity for renewed Franco-German cooperation, especially with regard to the stalled EU constitutional treaty. As the Financial Times Deutschland put it:
The more sedate German chancellor Angela Merkel and the bundle of energy that is Sarkozy appear at first glance to come from two different planets. However, they have certain elements in common. Both have fundamentally favorable attitudes towards the United States. Both favor pragmatism over principles and grand visions in the way they do politics. That surely cannot hurt the European project--many EU citizens are tired of big words anyway.
Sarkozy wants to water down the EU constitution to the necessary institutional reforms and then pass it without a referendum. For Europe it could be the much longed-for kiss that wakes it from the slumber that it has been in since the failed referenda.
Sarkozy and Merkel are also united in their strong opposition to Turkey's attempt to join the European Union. This is a stunning reversal of political fortunes for Ankara, which, back home, is plagued by massive political tensions between Islamist and secular forces. Just 18 months ago, then-German chancellor Schroeder and outgoing French president Chirac were the most powerful advocates of Turkish EU membership.
In terms of economic policy, Sarkozy's promised reforms (deregulating the labor market, making it easier to work more than 35 hours a week, cutting taxes, etc.) can be expected to provide new impetus for the French economy. That is good news for both Paris and Berlin, as the two countries are each other's most important trading partners (last year, the bilateral trade in goods totaled about EUR150 billion). German conservatives already view Sarkozy's victory as proof that it is still possible to win elections in Europe based on a conservative platform that combines a commitment to traditional values with tough law-and-order policies and a neo-liberal economic agenda.
However, despite Sarkozy's commitment to economic reforms at home, Merkel will soon discover that Sarkozy is a tough partner to do business with. Back in 2004, when he was finance minister, Sarkozy gave his German neighbors a taste of what is commonly known in France as "patriotisme economique"--code for state-sponsored protectionism. After first helping to engineer the take-over of Franco-German pharmaceutical group Aventis by Sanofi-Synthélabo to create a unified French pharmaceutical "national champion," Sarkozy subsequently blocked German industrial giant Siemens from taking over Alstom, a French engineering rival teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Rather than allowing the prized manufacturer of France's record-breaking TGV high-speed train to fall into foreign hands, Sarkozy put together a state-supported multi-billion dollar bail-out package for Alstom which drew the ire of the German government in Berlin as well as the EU's competition watchdog in Brussels.
In this context, one should pay particular attention to the simmering Franco-German dispute over 10,000 planned job cuts at the Airbus consortium (about 20 percent of its workforce), which is now fully controlled by the Franco-German aerospace and defense company EADS. During his election campaign, Sarkozy made it clear that as president, he would not feel bound by the recent Airbus "Power 8" restructuring plan (under the terms of the current plan, France will absorb 4,300 job losses, Germany 3,700, Britain 1,600 and Spain 400): "If I'm elected president of the republic, I'll renegotiate with the Germans," Sarkozy vowed in early April. "Airbus must stop being run like an international organization. The 1998 shareholder pact must be renegotiated." As Pierre Drai, head of the new Paris-based think tank "Centre d'Etudes Transatlantiques" told me this week, "the EADS dispute will be a first crucial test of the Franco-German relationship."
