There's a debate going on right now about al Qaeda's precise role in the war in Iraq. Just this week, the public editor of the New York Times questioned the proposition that al Qaeda represented "the center of the insurgency" in Iraq. And over at Small Wars Journal, Malcolm Nance asserted that al Qaeda in Iraq may represent a force of only 1,500 fighters, and that loyalists to the former regime "have been waging the lion's share of the insurgency." We will have more on this later in the day...but Brigadier General Kevin Bergner, chief of staff for Strategic Effects at MNF-I, participated in a blogger conference call this morning and spoke directly to this question.
Charlie Quidnunc, from the Wizbang blog, asked Bergner how he would respond to claims in the press that there was some sort of "Pentagon conspiracy to link all this violence to al Qaeda."
BERGNER: ...When you live this and you see it up close, it's absolutely evident, it's very real...at no time in my press conference and at no time in our discussion have we said that all this violence is attributed to al Qaeda, we have said that al Qaeda is the principle threat to Iraq in the near-term. And, specifically, they are fueling sectarian violence and these spectacular attacks, which are so destabilizing. That doesn't suggest that there isn't a range of other actors out there. We talked last week in great detail about the Lebanese Hezbollah as being used as surrogates by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Qods Force operatives here, specifically to train, equip, organize, and then guide sometimes the employment of these special groups....I would go back to that to say that we've actually been very forthright in explaining the role that those groups are having and they are an increasing problem--one that's having an increasingly destabilizing effect on both the government of Iraq and creating more problems for us to deal with. So no one would suggest that it's a monolithic threat, but there is no question that al Qaeda is the principle fueler of violence and sectarian attacks, and you can tell by their own propaganda that it is central to them.
The WWS: Do you view al Qaeda as "the center of the insurgency," and if so, "do you view al Qaeda in Iraq as essentially the same as al Qaeda otherwise...what's the level of command and control with al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan?"
BERGNER: I don't think there's any question that the al Qaeda senior leadership is exercising influence over the al Qaeda in Iraq efforts, in fact, al Qaeda in Iraq has continued to be run, administered, overseen by foreigners in large measure. So there is a strong linkage between al Qaeda senior leadership and what they are trying to generate in terms of jihadist activity much like I described the Zawihiri video earlier...there's no question that these organizations in Iraq use a cellular structure--they use it to insulate themselves, they use it to make themselves less vulnerable, and they frequently will decide their targeting, their local actions, on a local cellular basis. Sometimes that will also be responsive to the guidance or direction of the regional leader, of a regional emir, or a citywide emir, who is directing certain priorities or certain kinds of attacks to take place.
We shouldn't confuse the fact that the cellular nature of these networks doesn't necessarily make them independent, it means that they are using that to reduce their vulnerability and it doesn't dispute their freedom of action, but it also doesn't say that they are independent of al Qaeda, that they are influenced by al Qaeda. In fact, what we see from the Zawahiri video is frustration on the part of the al Qaeda senior leadership. He talks about his frustration about disunity, about conspiracy, about discord, they are trying to undermine, trying to generate more unity, and trying to counter the effect that we're seeing with these Awakening councils and support councils. I think that's the best way I can describe it. No one is suggesting this is a monolithic threat--it's not. But there is no question, if you look at U.S. intelligence agencies, if you look at how the government of Iraq looks at the security problems, and then you see how al Qaeda itself describes itself and its vision for Iraq, there's quite a bit of congruence there in terms of the reality al Qaeda has in Iraq.
Bergner also addressed this issue during a press conference this morning, which can be viewed at the Pentagon Channel via streaming video. Bergner claimed that 26 al Qaeda leaders had been killed or captured in the period May to June of this year. Here is an illustration from that briefing.
