I recently joined several other bloggers in a discussion with a senior administration official familiar with the ongoing effort in Iraq. The conversation reflected the changed dynamic on the ground--one where the improving security situation focuses greater attention on political progress and reconciliation. In that vein, it's becoming clear that General Petraeus and Admiral Crocker believe that the U.S. needs to look at reconciliation at the local and provincial level, rather than just the federal level, in order to get a true sense of what's happening in Iraq.
The official began by acknowledging forthrightly that political progress has lagged behind that made in the realm of security. He pointed to the 'crisis conference' called by Maliki as an important opportunity to bridge issues and take advantage of the breathing space created by a reduction in violence. He said that while August is important for 'laying the foundation' for progress at the national level, we must also look beyond Baghdad for signs of how things are going.
When asked it if was a mistake to focus benchmarks on the national level, the official said that the White House cannot ignore the benchmarks that have been set out, but 'they are not the only indicators out there.' He described them as 'a tall order'--especially for a government just 18 months old, and in which key ministers have only been in office for 12-14 months. He clarified that it was not a mistake, but that 'you have to marry the top with the bottom.'
When asked directly if Petraeus and Crocker will stress progress in the provinces, this official said that they are 'definitely' likely to talk about it. He said something that will not surprise readers of this site- that the greatest success so far is in Al Anbar. He pointed out that just a year ago, the dramatic strides in security, cooperation with the U.S., rooting out of Al Qaeda, and creation of economic opportunity would have been unimaginable.
He concurred with some of the recent comments of American leaders in Iraq, that a sort-of 'Mini-Tet' offensive by insurgents would be no surprise in advance of the September 15 deadline. (It may already have begun.) He said that the insurgency has demonstrated an understanding of the U.S. media, which tends to 'inflate the day's activities and overcome the successes.' He said that it behooves U.S. officials to think things through carefully.
With that in mind, I wonder if we might not see the 'September 15 report' some time in advance of that deadline. It's worth remembering that the 'July 15' report was delivered on July 12. There's no reason that the administration cannot deliver this one early, as well. Such a move allow the administration to seize the initiative here in Washington, rather than allowing the opposition to drive events. Whenever it is delivered, it's becoming clear that it will point to the successes, note the failures, and include recommendations on how to build on progress that has already lbeen made. It will be very interesting to see how Congress responds.
Read also McQ and NZ, particularly for an insight into the official's comments that Iranian influence is a growing problem in Iraq.
