As part of its ongoing propaganda war, al Qaeda's leaders are once again flooding the airwaves. Both Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri reportedly cover a lot of ground in their two new recently released tapes. Importantly, they have once again declared war on President Musharraf and his government.
Al Qaeda's threats towards Musharraf are not, of course, entirely new. But these most recent threats appear to be explicitly timed to coincide with the announcement of the date for upcoming elections, which will determine Musharraf's political fate.
One tape, entitled "Come to Jihad," reportedly features the voice of Osama bin Laden. Laura Mansfield, whose translations of al Qaeda's missives are indispensable, provided the Associated Press with some of the highlights from the tape. Bin Laden says the conflict at the Red Mosque in July "demonstrated Musharraf's insistence on continuing his loyalty, submissiveness and aid to America against the Muslims . . . and makes armed rebellion against him and removing him obligatory." Bin Laden called on Pakistanis to rebel against Musharraf: "So when the capability is there, it is obligatory to rebel against the apostate ruler, as is the case now."
Another tape features Ayman al-Zawahiri. According to the Associated Press, Zawahiri also referenced the siege of the Red Mosque, saying it "revealed the extent of the despicableness, lowliness and treason of Musharraf and his forces, who don't deserve the honor of defending Pakistan, because Pakistan is a Muslim land, whereas the forces of Musharraf are hunting dogs under [President] Bush's crucifix."
These open threats raise the specter of a fresh round of attacks in Pakistan. But Musharraf's life has been threatened before--al Qaeda has already made several attempts on Musharraf's life. The real question, then, is: will these most recent threats convince Pakistan, and her American ally, to do more about al Qaeda's safe haven in the northern tribal regions?
It is no secret that al Qaeda's two most senior leaders are, most likely, hiding in the tribal areas of Pakistan, including Northern and Southern Waziristan. In fact, in his most recent tape, bin Laden reportedly refers to fallen al Qaeda leaders who were slain in these areas as additional justification for attacking Musharraf's government. But Musharraf's response to the terror emanating from these uncontrolled areas of Pakistan has been uneven. At some points in the past he has been willing to make a show of force in confronting the thousands of terrorists holed up there, but at other times he has effectively ceded large swaths of Pakistani territory to al Qaeda's tribal allies. The latter happened last year when Musharraf agreed to the disastrous tribal accords, which limited Pakistan's engagement in the region and allowed al Qaeda and its allies time to further entrench themselves in their new safe haven.
Musharraf isn't the only one who is threatened by al Qaeda's leaders operating from their safe haven in northern Pakistan. Recently foiled plots in Denmark and Germany have been tied to al Qaeda's Pakistani training camps. Both nations have foiled significant terrorist plots in recent weeks with help from American intelligence. According to the New York Times, American authorities revealed that "electronic intercepts from Pakistan" were used to identify the Danish al Qaeda cell and similar intercepts were used to break up the al Qaeda plot in Germany. The Times also quoted the head of Danish intelligence, Jakob Scharf, on the importance of al Qaeda's presence in northern Pakistan and the group's ability to launch attacks from that region. "What's coming from this is that they are now able to give military and terrorist training and able to plan and steer specific operations in Europe," Mr. Scharf explained. He added that he was not saying there was "a direct phone line to Osama bin Laden" but that senior al Qaeda members were able to "direct operations outside of Afghanistan and Pakistan."
The recent failed plots in Germany and Denmark are not the first to be tied to al Qaeda in Pakistan. At least two of the terrorists responsible for the July 7, 2005 bombings in London also met up with senior al Qaeda leaders operating there. In November 2004, Mohammed Siddique Khan and Shezhad Tanweer made their way from the UK to Karachi, Pakistan. Once in Pakistan they met up with Abd al-Hadi al-Iraqi, a senior member of al Qaeda who was once a major in Saddam Hussein's army and who has since been captured. According to multiple press accounts, Abd al-Hadi directed the 7/7 plotters to attack the UK and provided them with assistance in devising the plot. Hundreds, if not thousands, of other terrorists are reportedly being trained at as many as twenty-nine training camps in the Pakistani tribal areas as well.
Thus, we are left with a situation in which al Qaeda has regrouped in Northern Pakistan from where they repeatedly threaten and attempt to assassinate President Musharraf and organize plots against the West. Whether or not Musharraf remains in power past the upcoming elections, al Qaeda will undoubtedly continue to threaten Pakistan's leaders. Yet, no one seems to have a good solution for countering this threat. Admittedly, this is a complicated situation with no easy answers. But it is in all of our interests--Pakistan's, America's, Europe's and the new Afghanistan's--to come up with a solution sooner, rather than later.
